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Expectations of Active Mutual Fund Performance

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Listed:
  • Dahlquist, Magnus
  • Ibert, Markus
  • Wilke, Felix

Abstract

We recover a forward-looking distribution of expected abnormal returns (alphas) for active equity mutual funds from analyst ratings. Professional analysts believe that alphas are dispersed, that the average fund will underperform, and that the largest funds will outperform. We estimate a rational expectations learning model of fund performance and confront the model-implied expectations based on fund size, perceived skill, and fees with analysts' expectations. Analysts and the rational learner respond similarly to changes in perceived skill and fees, but in contrast to the rational learner, analysts do not believe in a negative impact of fund size on fund returns. The absence of such decreasing returns to scale in analysts' expectations and the presence thereof in actual fund returns make it difficult to reconcile analysts' expectations with rational expectations, but can help explain the size of the industry together with its poor performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Dahlquist, Magnus & Ibert, Markus & Wilke, Felix, 2020. "Expectations of Active Mutual Fund Performance," CEPR Discussion Papers 15548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15548
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markus Ibert & Ron Kaniel & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Roine Vestman, 2018. "Are Mutual Fund Managers Paid for Investment Skill?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 715-772.
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    3. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
    4. Berk, Jonathan B. & van Binsbergen, Jules H., 2015. "Measuring skill in the mutual fund industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 1-20.
    5. Pástor, Ľuboš & Stambaugh, Robert F. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2015. "Scale and skill in active management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 23-45.
    6. Zhu, Min, 2018. "Informative fund size, managerial skill, and investor rationality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 114-134.
    7. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2010. "Luck versus Skill in the Cross‐Section of Mutual Fund Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(5), pages 1915-1947, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Alpha; Expectation formation; Mutual funds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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