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Weather shocks and English wheat yields, 1690-1871

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  • Brunt, Liam

Abstract

We estimate a time series model of weather shocks on English wheat yields for the early nineteenth century and use it to predict weather effects on yield levels from 1697 to 1871. This reveals that yields in the 1690s were depressed by unusually poor weather; and those in the late 1850s were inflated by unusually good weather. This has led researchers to overestimate the underlying growth of yields over the period by perhaps 50 per cent. Correcting for this effect would largely reconcile the conflicting primal and dual estimates of productivity growth over the period.

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  • Brunt, Liam, 2015. "Weather shocks and English wheat yields, 1690-1871," CEPR Discussion Papers 10530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10530
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    Cited by:

    1. José Luis Martínez-González & Jordi Suriñach & Gabriel Jover & Javier Martín-Vide & Mariano Barriendos-Vallvé & Enric Tello, 2020. "Assessing climate impacts on English economic growth (1645–1740): an econometric approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 233-249, May.
    2. José Luis Martínez-González, 2025. "Assessing agricultural adaptation to changing climatic conditions during the English agricultural revolution (1645–1740)," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 19(1), pages 163-193, January.
    3. Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist & Peter Thejll & Bo Christiansen & Andrea Seim & Claudia Hartl & Jan Esper, 2022. "The significance of climate variability on early modern European grain prices," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 16(1), pages 29-77, January.
    4. José L. Martínez González, 2019. "High Wages or Wages For Energy? An Alternative View of The British Case (1645-1700)," Working Papers 0158, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • N5 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation

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