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Weather shocks and English wheat yields, 1690-1871

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  • Brunt, Liam

Abstract

We estimate a time series model of weather shocks on English wheat yields for the early nineteenth century and use it to predict weather effects on yield levels from 1697 to 1871. This reveals that yields in the 1690s were depressed by unusually poor weather; and those in the late 1850s were inflated by unusually good weather. This has led researchers to overestimate the underlying growth of yields over the period by perhaps 50 per cent. Correcting for this effect would largely reconcile the conflicting primal and dual estimates of productivity growth over the period.

Suggested Citation

  • Brunt, Liam, 2015. "Weather shocks and English wheat yields, 1690-1871," CEPR Discussion Papers 10530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10530
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    Cited by:

    1. José Luis Martínez-González & Jordi Suriñach & Gabriel Jover & Javier Martín-Vide & Mariano Barriendos-Vallvé & Enric Tello, 2020. "Assessing climate impacts on English economic growth (1645–1740): an econometric approach," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 160(2), pages 233-249, May.
    2. José L. Martínez-González & Gabriel Jover-Avellà & Enric Tello, 2019. "Building an annual series of English wheat production in an intriguing era (1645-1761): methodology, challenges and results," Historia Agraria. Revista de Agricultura e Historia Rural, Sociedad Española de Historia Agraria, issue 79, pages 41-69, december.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    agriculture; productivity; weather;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N5 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • Q2 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation

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