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The Uruguay Round and Trade in Manufactures and Services. General Equilibrium Simulations of Production, Trade and Welfare Effects of Liberalization

Author

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  • Haaland, Jan I.

Abstract

Using a numerical general equilibrium model we examine the possible production, trade and welfare effects of successful implementation of the Uruguay Round results. The model includes trade in manufactures and (some) services among industrial regions and countries; there is imperfect competition in most markets in the model, and we account for reductions in both tariffs and non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Our results indicate that the welfare effects of the liberalization we consider (i.e. ignoring both agriculture and trade with developing countries) may be fairly limited. Compared with a scenario of GATT failure and global protectionism, on the other hand, the gains are significant, and we conclude that the Uruguay Round plays an important role in avoiding a trade war in manufactures. We also show that the dynamic effects through endogenous investment growth might be just as important as the static effects reported.

Suggested Citation

  • Haaland, Jan I., 1994. "The Uruguay Round and Trade in Manufactures and Services. General Equilibrium Simulations of Production, Trade and Welfare Effects of Liberalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 1008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1008
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Spinanger, Dean & Francois, Joseph F. & Glismann, Hans H., 2000. "The German Economy and EU Industrial Tariff Reductions: Partial and CGE Analyses of a Stillborn Millennium Round," Kiel Working Papers 999, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    2. Peter Walkenhorst, 2004. "Liberalising Trade in Textiles and Clothing: A Survey of Quantitative Studies," International Trade 0401007, EconWPA.
    3. Spinanger, Dean & Francois, Joseph F. & Glismann, Hans H., 2000. "The Cost of EU Trade Protection in Textiles and Clothing," Kiel Working Papers 997, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GATT; Liberalization; Regionalization; Trade Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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