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Entrando en cintura: implicaciones de política económica sobre la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública en la zona euro

Author

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  • Andrés Ramírez Hassan
  • Mateo Uribe Castro

Abstract

En este artículo se muestra el marco teórico implícito en la restricción presupuestaria intertemporal del gobierno. A partir de este, se realizan una serie de simulaciones sobre el problema de sostenibilidad de la deuda pública, y los sacrificios fiscales necesarios para juzgar el actual nivel de endeudamiento sostenible en algunos países de la zona Euro. En particular, Grecia, Portugal, Italia y Espana deben generar un superávit primario de 44.1%, 10.5%, 6.8% y 4.5% del PIB, respectivamente para mantener sus actuales niveles de endeudamiento. La situación de Reino Unido, Alemania y Francia es diferente, puesto que pueden presentar déficits debido a la relación entre crecimiento esperado y tasa de interés. ***** The present article shows the theory implicit in the intertemporal government budget constraint. From this framework, it is run a series of simulation exercises about the public debt sustainability problem and the needed fiscal sacrifices to judge the actual level of sustainable indebtedness in some countries into Euro zone. Specifically, Greece, Portugal, Italy and Spain must generate a primary surplus of 44.1%, 10.5%, 6.8% and 4.5% of the GDP, respectively, to maintain their current amount of debt. On the other hand, Germany, France and the UK can have primary deficits due to their relation between growth rate and real interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Ramírez Hassan & Mateo Uribe Castro, 2013. "Entrando en cintura: implicaciones de política económica sobre la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública en la zona euro," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10942, Universidad EAFIT.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000122:010942
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    Keywords

    Deuda pública; Sostenibilidad; Superávit primario; Unión Europea; Política fiscal;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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