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Capital Scarcity and Industrial Decline: Evidence from 172 Real Estate Booms in China

Author

Listed:
  • Harald Hau

    (University of Geneva, Swiss Finance Institute, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), and CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute))

  • Difei Ouyang

    (University of Geneva)

Abstract

In geographically segmented credit markets, local real estate booms can divert capital away from manufacturing firms, create capital scarcity, increase local real interest rates, lower real wages, and cause underinvestment and relative decline in the industrial sector. Using exogenous variation in the administrative land supply across 172 Chinese cities, we show that the predicted variation in real estate prices does indeed cause substantially higher capital costs for manufactoring firms, reduce their bank lending, lower their capital intensity and labor productivity, weaken firms’ financial performance, and reduce their TFP growth by economically significant magnitudes. This evidence highlights macroeconomic stability concerns associated with real estate booms.

Suggested Citation

  • Harald Hau & Difei Ouyang, 2018. "Capital Scarcity and Industrial Decline: Evidence from 172 Real Estate Booms in China," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 18-38, Swiss Finance Institute, revised May 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1838
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Leonardo Gambacorta & Yiping Huang & Zhenhua Li & Han Qiu & Shu Chen, 2020. "Data vs collateral," BIS Working Papers 881, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Belton M. Fleisher & William H. McGuire & Xiaojun Wang & Min Qiang Zhao, 2021. "Induced innovation: evidence from China’s secondary industry," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(52), pages 6075-6093, November.
    3. Leonardo Gambacorta & Yiping Huang & Zhenhua Li & Han Qiu & Shu Chen, 2023. "Data versus Collateral," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 369-398.
    4. Kenneth Rogoff & Yuanchen Yang, 2021. "Has China's Housing Production Peaked?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(1), pages 1-31, January.
    5. John Muellbauer, 2023. "Why we need a green land value tax and how to design it," Economics Series Working Papers 1010, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Factor price externalities; reverse Balassa-Samuelson-effect; firm growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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