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A Trade Model with an Optimal Exchange Rate Motivated by Current Discussion of a Chinese Renminbi Float

Author

Listed:
  • Hui Huang
  • Yi Wang
  • Yiming Wang
  • John Whalley
  • Shunming Zhang

Abstract

We combine a model of combined inter-spatial and inter-temporal trade between countries recently — used by Huang, Whalley and Zhang (2004) to analyze the merits of trade liberalization in services when goods trade is restricted — with a model of foreign exchange rationing due to Clarete and Whalley (1991) in which there is a fixed exchange rate with a surrender requirement for foreign exchange generated by exports. In this model, when services remain unliberalized there is an optimal trade intervention, even in the small open price-taking economy case. Given monetary policy and an endogenously determined premium value on foreign exchange, an optimal setting of the exchange rate can provide the optimal trade intervention. We suggest this model has relevance to the current situation in China where services remain unliberalized and tariff rates are bound in the WTO. Since there is an optimal exchange rate, a move to a free Renminbi float can be welfare worsening. We use numerical simulation methods to explore the properties of the model, since it has no closed form solution. Our analysis provides an intellectual counter argument to those presently advocating a free Renminbi float for China.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Huang & Yi Wang & Yiming Wang & John Whalley & Shunming Zhang, 2005. "A Trade Model with an Optimal Exchange Rate Motivated by Current Discussion of a Chinese Renminbi Float," CESifo Working Paper Series 1471, CESifo Group Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1471
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1471.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845, October.
    2. Hui Huang & John Whalley & Shunming Zhang, 2005. "Trade Liberalization in a Joint Spatial Inter-Temporal Trade Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 1463, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Magill, Michael & Shafer, Wayne, 1991. "Incomplete markets," Handbook of Mathematical Economics,in: W. Hildenbrand & H. Sonnenschein (ed.), Handbook of Mathematical Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 30, pages 1523-1614 Elsevier.
    4. Duffie, Darrell, 1987. "Stochastic equilibria with incomplete financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 405-416, April.
    5. Aadtya Mattoo, 2000. "Financial Services and the WTO: Liberalisation Commitments of the Developing and Transition Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 351-386, March.
    6. Clarete, Ramon & Whalley, John, 1991. "Foreign exchange premia and non-neutrality of monetary policy in general equilibrium models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 153-166, February.
    7. Werner, Jan, 1985. "Equilibrium in economies with incomplete financial markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 110-119, June.
    8. Chang, Gene Hsin & Shao, Qin, 2004. "How much is the Chinese currency undervalued? A quantitative estimation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 366-371.
    9. Geanakoplos, John, 1990. "An introduction to general equilibrium with incomplete asset markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 1-38.
    10. K. J. Arrow, 1964. "The Role of Securities in the Optimal Allocation of Risk-bearing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 91-96.
    11. Zhang, Fan & Pan, Zuohong, 2004. "Determination of China's long-run nominal exchange rate and official intervention," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 360-365.
    12. Duffie, Darrell & Shafer, Wayne, 1985. "Equilibrium in incomplete markets: I : A basic model of generic existence," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 285-300, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gonzales-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2004. "Sustaining Social Security," Seminar Papers 731, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.

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