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Persistence in UK Historical Data on Life Expectancy

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Juan Infante
  • Marta del Rio
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

Abstract

This paper provides estimates of persistence in historical UK data on life expectancy applying fractional integration methods to both an annual series from 1842 to 2019 and a 5-year average from 1543 to 2019. The results indicate that the former exhibits an upward trend and is persistent but mean reverting; the same holds for the latter, though its degree of persistence is higher. Similar results are obtained for the logged values. On the whole, this evidence suggests that the effects of shocks to the series are transitory though persistent, which is useful information for policy makers whose task is to take appropriate measures to increase life expectancy.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Juan Infante & Marta del Rio & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2023. "Persistence in UK Historical Data on Life Expectancy," CESifo Working Paper Series 10287, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10287
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jackie Li, 2013. "A Poisson common factor model for projecting mortality and life expectancy jointly for females and males," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 67(1), pages 111-126, March.
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    3. John Geweke & Susan Porter‐Hudak, 1983. "The Estimation And Application Of Long Memory Time Series Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(4), pages 221-238, July.
    4. James C. Riley, 2005. "Estimates of Regional and Global Life Expectancy, 1800–2001," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(3), pages 537-543, September.
    5. David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 97-120, Summer.
    6. Peltzman, Sam, 2009. "Mortality Inequality," Working Papers 225, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    7. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "Persistence, Mean-Reversion and Non-linearities in Infant Mortality Rates," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 131(1), pages 393-405, March.
    8. Sam Peltzman, 2009. "Mortality Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 175-190, Fall.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    life expectancy; long memory; fractional integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • D60 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - General

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