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The Political Cycle of Road Traffic Accidents

Author

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  • Paola Bertoli
  • Veronica Grembi

Abstract

Road traffic accidents often mean lost productivity and medical expenditures. We explain trends in traffic accidents as a function of the political cycle using municipal data from Italy. We show that during municipal election years, the accident rate increases by 2.2%, with a 2.5% increase in the injury rate but no effect on the fatality rate. The effects are stronger in the two quarters prior the quarter in which the election is held, when the electoral campaign is intense, and in the second quarter after the election, when the elected mayor takes office. We argue that this is the result of a decrease in ticket rates during election years, as the expenditures on traffic police increase. Our results are robustly driven by the municipal political cycle defined in different ways, and their magnitude and direction are not explained by spillover effects between municipalities. Proximity to a national police station reduces the impact of local elections on injury rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Paola Bertoli & Veronica Grembi, 2018. "The Political Cycle of Road Traffic Accidents," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp633, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    • Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp633
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferraresi, Massimiliano & Rizzo, Leonzio & Secomandi, Riccardo, 2024. "Electoral incentives to target investment in roads: Evidence from Italian municipalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    2. Massimiliano Ferraresi & Leonzio Rizzo & Riccardo Secomandi, 2021. "Electoral incentives, investment in roads, and safety on local roads," Working papers 107, Società Italiana di Economia Pubblica.
    3. Cipullo, Davide & Le Moglie, Marco, 2022. "To vote, or not to vote? Electoral campaigns and the spread of COVID-19," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Leonzio Rizzo & Massimiliano Ferraresi & Riccardo Secomandi, 2021. "Electoral incentives, investment in roads, and safety on local roads," Working Papers 20210710, University of Ferrara, Department of Economics.
    5. Pires Abdullah & Tibor Sipos, 2022. "Drivers’ Behavior and Traffic Accident Analysis Using Decision Tree Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-11, September.
    6. Yau‐Huo (Jimmy) Shr & Feng‐An Yang, 2023. "Public health crisis and risky road behaviors," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1205-1219, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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