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AI Overviews and Search Intent: Google’s Selective Deployment of Generative AI in Search

Author

Listed:
  • Robin Ng

  • Michael Wessel

Abstract

In May 2024, Google introduced AI Overviews (AIO): AI-generated syntheses displayed directly on the Search Engine Results Page (SERP). An AIO can resolve a user’s query on the SERP, speeding up the arrival of monetizable searches, but it is costly to generate and may displace advertising revenue. We model how a platform’s incentive to deploy an AIO depends on the user’s search intent: whether it is exploratory or targeted, and whether it is monetizable. We construct a novel dataset of SERPs for 1,575 search queries in two waves (November 2025 and August 2026). In line with our predictions, deployment is 32.3 percentage points higher for exploratory than targeted queries, and monetization reduces deployment by 13 percentage points. Among exploratory monetizable queries, deployment increases with advertisers’ cost per click, suggesting that the risk of losing advertising revenue may not be a key consideration for AIO deployment. For exploratory searches, deployment is unrelated to how well organic search results resolve the user’s query, rising when these results come from more authoritative sources. Of AIOs that cite sources, 98.1% cite a source from the top 10 organic results. Together, these findings suggest coopetition between Google and publishers that supply content for Overviews while competing with them for users’ attention.

Suggested Citation

  • Robin Ng & Michael Wessel, 2026. "AI Overviews and Search Intent: Google’s Selective Deployment of Generative AI in Search," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2026_742v2, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany, revised Oct 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2026_742v2
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    File URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp742
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hunt Allcott & Juan Camilo Castillo & Matthew Gentzkow & Leon Musolff & Tobias Salz, 2025. "Sources of Market Power in Web Search: Evidence from a Field Experiment," NBER Working Papers 33410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • L86 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Information and Internet Services; Computer Software
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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