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Testing for micro efficiency in the housing market

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Abstract

While aggregate house price indices display time persistence, less is known about micro persistence. This article proposes that absence of micro persistence implies that an excessively high or low sell price in one transaction is not repeated in the next transaction. We exploit a unique Norwegian data set of publically registered housing transactions between 2002 and 2014 and follow housing units over time to see if excessive prices persist or revert. In a regression with time and unit-fixed effects of sell-price-to-predicted-price ratios on previous sell-price-to-predicted-price ratios, we reject persistence and find substantial reversion. We also test for possible arbitrage opportunities in the form of excess returns. Once we control for price increases that are due to home improvements, we document that there is little scope for profitable arbitrage in excess of the market return. The overall impression is that the Norwegian housing market is relatively micro efficient.

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  • André Kallåk Anundsen & Erling Røed Larsen, 2016. "Testing for micro efficiency in the housing market," Working Paper 2016/6, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2016_06
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    File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2016/62016/
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:bny:wpaper:0090 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan & Sorensen, Kade, 2021. "A Time-Varying Hedonic Approach to quantifying the effects of loss aversion on house prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    3. Anundsen, André Kallåk & Kivedal, Bjørnar Karlsen & Røed Larsen, Erling & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2023. "Behavioral changes in the housing market before and after the Covid-19 lockdown," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB).
    4. Erling Røed Larsen, 2021. "Intra‐Week Price Patterns in the Housing Market," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(1), pages 327-352, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arbitrage; Housing Market; Micro Efficiency; Persistence; Repeat Sales;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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