Estimating the private costs of orbital debris for satellite missions

This paper estimates the private costs that orbital debris imposes on satellite op- erators. Specifically, we quantify the increase in mission costs associated with the growing presence of debris in Earth’s orbit. The proliferation of orbital debris raises the probability of collisions with operational satellites, which may damage or de- stroy space assets and compel operators to adopt costly mitigation measures. The resulting increase in collision risk generates a range of additional operational ex- penses, including higher launch costs, expenditures on collision-avoidance maneu- vers, and investments in shielding and debris-tracking capabilities. Orbital debris may also lead to the premature loss of space capital due to destructive collisions. In the baseline year 2025, private costs attributable to debris are estimated at approxi- mately $166,700 per mission. These costs increase substantially over time, reaching about $1 million within 50 years, about $5 million in 75 years, and more than $50 million in 100 years.