Healthcare workforce needs in Italy. Challenges of generational turnover and the impact of NRRP interventions

This paper offers an overview of the current supply and projected demand for healthcare personnel in Italy, with a particular focus on the challenges arising from the country's ageing population. Following a comparative assessment of Italy's position relative to major European nations, the study examines the evolution of healthcare staffing across Italy's macro-regions between 2011 and 2022, highlighting persistent territorial disparities. The analysis encompasses not only Italian public health service personnel but also contracted physicians and staff working in public-equivalent and accredited private facilities. A comparative evaluation of facilities by medical specialty reveals that the public and private sectors tend to function in a complementary rather than a substitutive manner. Furthermore, the paper estimates future workforce requirements over the next decade, considering both retirements and the implementation of initiatives aimed at strengthening community-based care, as outlined in the NRRP. Ultimately, the findings underscore a growing misalignment between the demand for specific healthcare roles and the available supply, a gap further widened by training programmes that are not consistently aligned with long-term strategic needs.