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Offshoring and Voting Patterns in the US

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Maria Mayda
  • Lindsay Oldenski
  • Walter Steingress

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of offshoring by US firms on voting patterns in the US. Using county-level voting data combined with industry-level offshoring data from 2000 to 2020, we ask whether an increase in employment at foreign affiliates of US multinational firms in vertically oriented industries is associated with an increase in the vote share for the incumbent party candidate in Presidential, House, and Senate elections. We find that offshoring leads to a significant increase in the incumbent vote share for counties with higher shares of college educated workers, and a significant decrease for counties with higher shares of workers in the manufacturing sector and in occupations that are more easily relocated abroad. These results are consistent with the labor market literature on offshoring and our own findings, which show that offshoring has heterogeneous effects on workers’ employment based on skill and occupational tasks. This suggests that voters respond to the economic effects of offshoring by rewarding or punishing incumbent party candidates.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Maria Mayda & Lindsay Oldenski & Walter Steingress, 2026. "Offshoring and Voting Patterns in the US," Staff Working Papers 26-37, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:26-37
    DOI: 10.34989/swp-2026-37
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D - Microeconomics
    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F - International Economics
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F6 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization
    • F60 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - General

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