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Measuring the Natural Output Gap using Actual and Expected Output Data

Author

Listed:
  • Anthony Garratt
  • Kevin Lee
  • Kalvinder Shields

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)

Abstract

An output gap measure is suggested based on the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition of output using a vector-autoregressive model that includes data on actual output and on expected output obtained from surveys. The paper explains the advantages of using survey data in business cycle analysis and the gap is provided economic meaning by relating it to the natural level of output defined in Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models. The measure is applied to quarterly US data over the period 1970q1-2007q4 and the resultant gap estimates are shown to have sensible statistical properties and perform well in explaining inflation in estimates of New Keynesian Phillips curves.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2009. "Measuring the Natural Output Gap using Actual and Expected Output Data," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0911, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:0911
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    File URL: http://www.bbk.ac.uk/ems/research/wp/PDF/BWPEF0911.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andres, Javier & Lopez-Salido, J. David & Nelson, Edward, 2005. "Sticky-price models and the natural rate hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 1025-1053, July.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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