IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bav/wpaper/119_arnoldbrunner.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is Rational Speculation in the Presence of Positive Feedback Traders Destabilizing?

Author

Listed:
  • Lutz G. Arnold
  • Stephan Brunner

Abstract

DeLong (1990a) et al. show that in the presence of positive feedback traders rational speculation can be destabilizing, in that it drives the price of a risky asset above its expected value. A generalization of their seminal model with additional trading dates and an additional informative signal yields further interesting insights: it helps clarify when prices overreact, underreact, or even move in the "wrong" direction; when rational speculation is destabilizing or stabilizing; and whether overreaction is a symptom of market inefficiency or a manifestation of informational efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Lutz G. Arnold & Stephan Brunner, 2012. "Is Rational Speculation in the Presence of Positive Feedback Traders Destabilizing?," Working Papers 119, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    • Handle: RePEc:bav:wpaper:119_arnoldbrunner
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bgpe.cms.rrze.uni-erlangen.de/files/2023/07/119_Is-Rational-Speculation-in-the-Presence-of-Positive-Feedback-Traders-Destabilizing.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2012
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    2. Lutz G. Arnold, 2009. "Anything is Possible: On the Existence and Uniqueness of Equilibria in the Shleifer-Vishny Model of Limits of Arbitrage," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(3), pages 521-553.
    3. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. "Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July.
    4. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arnold, Lutz G. & Brunner, Stephan, 2015. "The economics of rational speculation in the presence of positive feedback trading," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 161-174.
    2. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "New facts in finance," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 23(Q III), pages 36-58.
    3. David Peón & Anxo Calvo, 2012. "Using Behavioral Economics to Analyze Credit Policies in the Banking Industry," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 145-160.
    4. Alexandros Kontonikas & Alexandros Kostakis, 2013. "On Monetary Policy and Stock Market Anomalies," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(7-8), pages 1009-1042, September.
    5. repec:rza:wpaper:296 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Doran, James & Jiang, Danling & Peterson, David, 2007. "Short-Sale Constraints and the Non-January Idiosyncratic Volatility Puzzle," MPRA Paper 4995, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Wang, Yuming & Ma, Jinpeng, 2014. "Excess volatility and the cross-section of stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 1-16.
    8. Lim, Kian-Ping & Kim, Jae H., 2011. "Trade openness and the informational efficiency of emerging stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2228-2238, September.
    9. Lu Zhang, 2019. "Q-factors and Investment CAPM," NBER Working Papers 26538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Boubaker, Sabri & Farag, Hisham & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2015. "Short-term overreaction to specific events: Evidence from an emerging market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 153-165.
    11. Orhan ERDEM & Evren ARIK & Serkan YÜKSEL, 2014. "Trading Puzzle, Puzzling Trade," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 29(345), pages 83-102.
    12. Hou, Kewei & Peng, Lin & Xiong, Wei, 2006. "R2 and Price Inefficiency," Working Paper Series 2006-23, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    13. Taisei Kaizoji & Michiko Miyano, 2016. "Stock Market Market Crash of 2008: an empirical study of the deviation of share prices from company fundamentals," Papers 1607.03205, arXiv.org.
    14. Tamer Korkmaz, 2001. "The Investment of Emerging Capital Markets and the Role of Derivative Securities," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 5(17), pages 63-92.
    15. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    16. Mariem Talbi & Amel Ben Halima, 2019. "Global Contagion of Investor Sentiment during the US Subprime Crisis: The Case of the USA and the Region of Latin America," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 163-174.
    17. Eugen Kovac, 2005. "Speculation and Survival in Financial Markets," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp276, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    18. Shi, Leilei & Wang, Binghong & Guo, Xinshuai & Li, Honggang, 2021. "A price dynamic equilibrium model with trading volume weights based on a price-volume probability wave differential equation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Alexander Ludwig & Alexander Zimper, 2013. "A decision-theoretic model of asset-price underreaction and overreaction to dividend news," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 625-665, November.
    20. Y. Lemp'eri`ere & C. Deremble & P. Seager & M. Potters & J. P. Bouchaud, 2014. "Two centuries of trend following," Papers 1404.3274, arXiv.org.
    21. Adam Majewski & Stefano Ciliberti & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2018. "Co-existence of Trend and Value in Financial Markets: Estimating an Extended Chiarella Model," Papers 1807.11751, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bav:wpaper:119_arnoldbrunner. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anton Barabasch (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vierlde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.