IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/awe/wpaper/390.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

COVID-19 AND INDIAN ECONOMY:Impact on Growth, Manufacturing, Trade and MSME sector

Author

Listed:
  • Pravakar Sahoo
  • Ashwani

    (Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi)

Abstract

We make a preliminary assessment of Covid-19 on Indian economy by analyzing its impact on growth, manufacturing, trade and MSME sector. The impact of the Pandemic across sectors and in different scenarios of complete, extended and partial lockdown and at different levels of capacity utilisation is massive on the Indian economy. India’s economy may barely manage to have a positive growth of half a percent in an optimistic scenario but also faces the possibility of a 3 to 7 percent negative growth in worst case scenarios for the calendar year 2020. The impact is severe on trade, manufacturing and MSME sectors. The likely impact (deceleration) of Covid-19 from best case scenario to worst scenario are follows - manufacturing sector may shrink from 5.5 to 20 percent, exports from 13.7 to 20.8 percent; imports from 17.3 to 25 percent and MSME NVA from 2.1 to 5.7 percent in 2020 over previous year. The economy is heading towards a recession and the situation demands systematic, well targeted and aggressive fiscal-monetary stimulus measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Pravakar Sahoo & Ashwani, 2020. "COVID-19 AND INDIAN ECONOMY:Impact on Growth, Manufacturing, Trade and MSME sector," IEG Working Papers 390, Institute of Economic Growth.
    • Handle: RePEc:awe:wpaper:390
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://iegindia.org/upload/publication/Workpap/wp390.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Indranil Dutta & Ajit Mishra, 2019. "Identifying the Vulnerable: Concepts and Measurement," IEG Working Papers 382, Institute of Economic Growth.
    2. Ozili, Peterson & Arun, Thankom, 2020. "Spillover of COVID-19: Impact on the Global Economy," MPRA Paper 99317, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hossain, Mohammad Rokibul & Akhter, Fahmida & Sultana, Mir Misnad, 2022. "SMEs in Covid-19 Crisis and Combating Strategies: A Systematic Literature Review (SLR) and A Case from Emerging Economy," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 9(C).
    2. ARAVAMUDHAN Varadaraj & SAI MOHANRAJ Prasanna & SENGODAN Ananth, 2022. "Implications Of Covid-19 On Textiles Industry In India - Discovering Issues And Challenges On Demand And Supply Sides," Eastern European Journal for Regional Studies (EEJRS), Center for Studies in European Integration (CSEI), Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova (ASEM), vol. 8(2), pages 18-29, December.
    3. Pravakar Sahoo & Ashwani Bishnoi, 2021. "Investment Slowdown in India: Role of Fiscal-Monetary policy and Economic Uncertainty," IEG Working Papers 439, Institute of Economic Growth.
    4. Agarwal, Vernika & Mathiyazhagan, K. & Malhotra, Snigdha & Pimpunchat, Busayamas, 2023. "Building resilience for sustainability of MSMEs post COVID-19 outbreak: An Indian handicraft industry outlook," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lewkowicz, Jacek & Woźniak, Michał & Wrzesiński, Michał, 2022. "COVID-19 and erosion of democracy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    2. Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "COVID-19 and stock returns: Evidence from the Markov switching dependence approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Farzami, Yasmine & Gregory-Allen, Russell & Molchanov, Alexander & Sehrish, Saba, 2021. "COVID-19 and the liquidity network," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    4. Juan Pablo Gama & Rodrigo J. Raad, 2023. "Larde public expenditure shocks in a Ramsey taxation model with default," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 665, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    5. Anthony Wakwe Lawrence & Damiete Onyema Lawrence, 2023. "Impacts of COVID-19 Pandemic on Sustainability/Survivability of Micro/Small Sized Businesses in Nigeria," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(9), pages 1-1, February.
    6. Nurudeen Abu & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal & Musa Abdullahi Sakanko & Ana Mateen & David Joseph & Ben-Obi Onyewuchi Amaechi, 2021. "How have COVID-19 Confirmed Cases and Deaths Affected Stock Markets? Evidence from Nigeria," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 15(1), February.
    7. Alin Ioan CRETU & Alina Stefania CHENIC & Ana NASTASE, 2021. "The Latest Developments in European Construction," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 2, pages 186-192.
    8. Solomon Mequanent Biwota, 2020. "The Impact of COVID -19 Pandemic on Hospitality (Tourism& HotelSector) and Mitigation Mechanism in Ethiopia review," Agricultural Research & Technology: Open Access Journal, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 25(1), pages 21-27, August.
    9. Jialei Jiang & Eun-Mi Park & Seong-Taek Park, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 on Economic Sustainability—A Case Study of Fluctuation in Stock Prices for China and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.
    10. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Eugenia Grecu, 2023. "Government Interventions and Sovereign Bond Market Volatility during COVID-19: A Quantile Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-14, February.
    11. Oyelami, Lukman O. & Saibu, Olufemi M., 2021. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Covid-19 in a Small Open Economy: An Empirical Analysis of Nigeria," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 55(1), pages 113-122.
    12. Bai, Chenjiang & Duan, Yuejiao & Liu, Congya & Qiu, Leiju, 2022. "International taxation sentiment and COVID-19 crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. S, Ramya, 2023. "Analyzing the Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Stock Market Investments," OSF Preprints wm4z3, Center for Open Science.
    14. Rosa Caiazza & Phillip Phan & Erik Lehmann & Henry Etzkowitz, 2021. "An absorptive capacity-based systems view of Covid-19 in the small business economy," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 1419-1439, September.
    15. Hillary C. Ezeaku & Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "Covid-19 and Cacophony of coughing: Did International commodity Prices catch influenza?," Working Papers 20/040, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    16. repec:arp:sjefsm:2021:p:64-80 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Nano Prawoto & Eko Priyo Purnomo & Abitassha Az Zahra, 2020. "The Impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic on Socio-Economic Mobility in Indonesia," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 57-71.
    18. Ascaryan Rafinda & Timea Gal, 2022. "Covid-19 Pandemic And Its Impact On Household Financial Behavior In Indonesia," Oradea Journal of Business and Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 7(special), pages 77-85, June.
    19. Di Shang & Chang Yu & Gang Diao, 2021. "Study on Impacts of COVID-19 Pandemic Recession Based on Monte Carlo Simulation," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2021(6), pages 724-747.
    20. Goshu Desalegn & Anita Tangl & Maria Fekete-Farkas, 2022. "From Short-Term Risk to Long-Term Strategic Challenges: Reviewing the Consequences of Geopolitics and COVID-19 on Economic Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-22, November.
    21. Wei, Xiaoyun & Han, Liyan, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on transmission of monetary policy to financial markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:awe:wpaper:390. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iegggin.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.