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Unsmoothing Real Estate Returns: A Regime-Switching Approach


  • Colin Lizieri
  • Warapong Wongwachara
  • Stephen Satchell


"We propose newly developed unsmoothing techniques which are based on a regime-switching Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model. We first examine analytically conventional unsmoothing techniques which model the true returns by a linear Autoregressive (AR) process ñ and show that when true returns follow a TAR process, the conventional technique is misspecified, and hence still underestimates true variance. Our approach also addresses identification problems that may occur in the conventional method. The threshold/regime technique can be applied both to underlying return processes and to smoothing behaviour. We test these individually and in combination for UK commercial real estate returns, using a variety of exogenous variables. Two variables, FT all share returns and LIBOR interest rates, provide results that improve on the conventional single regime model. The results are intuitively plausible, capturing return behaviour and suggest that in extreme ""crisis"" regimes, returns fall explosively and smoothing effects intensify, by comparison to more benign regimes. These results support parallel work on asymmetries in real estate behaviour and shed important light on the risks of real estate and its diversification potential."

Suggested Citation

  • Colin Lizieri & Warapong Wongwachara & Stephen Satchell, 2010. "Unsmoothing Real Estate Returns: A Regime-Switching Approach," ERES eres2010_235, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
  • Handle: RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2010_235

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    Cited by:

    1. McKenzie, Michael & Satchell, Stephen & Wongwachara, Warapong, 2014. "Converting true returns into reported returns: A general theory of linear smoothing and anti-smoothing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 215-229.
    2. repec:bla:abacus:v:53:y:2017:i:3:p:319-348 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Pin-te Lin & Franz Fuerst, 2014. "The integration of direct real estate and stock markets in Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(12), pages 1323-1334, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location


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