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Dynamic slippage control and rejection feedback in spot FX market making

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  • Alexander Barzykin

Abstract

We study an OTC FX market-making problem, built on the Avellaneda-Stoikov tradition, in which a dealer streams size-dependent quotes on a discrete ladder and manages inventory risk over a finite horizon under Poisson arrivals of trade requests. Adverse selection is modelled through latency-driven price moves over a delay window, represented by Gaussian marks whose conditional means can depend on the quoted spread, capturing selective client reaction to stale quotes. The dealer can address latency risk through trade rejection when slippage breaches a tolerance threshold. We treat slippage tolerance as an explicit control jointly optimized with quotes: upon receiving a trade request, the dealer chooses an acceptance/rejection rule, which makes the trade economically akin to an embedded option written on the latency price move. We further introduce rejection feedback through an EMA-based rejection score used as a reputation proxy, so that client intensity is endogenously modulated by past rejections via a multiplicative factor. Using dynamic programming, we derive a Markov control problem with state variables (inventory, rejection-score) and show how rejection decision enters the HJB equation through Hamiltonians that include an expectation over the latency mark and a maximization over both quote and rejection rule parameters. For practical control evaluation, we develop an adiabatic-quadratic approximation: fixing reputation on the inventory-control time scale, expanding Hamiltonians to the second order, and adopting quadratic ansatz in inventory, yielding tractable Riccati-type ODE and closed-form expressions for approximate quotes and slippage thresholds. This approximation provides a fast surrogate for policy design and enables self-consistent calibration of rejection behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Barzykin, 2026. "Dynamic slippage control and rejection feedback in spot FX market making," Papers 2603.07752, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2603.07752
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe Bergault & Olivier Guéant, 2021. "Size matters for OTC market makers: General results and dimensionality reduction techniques," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 279-322, January.
    2. Marco Avellaneda & Sasha Stoikov, 2008. "High-frequency trading in a limit order book," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 217-224.
    3. Philippe Bergault & David Evangelista & Olivier Guéant & Douglas Vieira, 2021. "Closed-form Approximations in Multi-asset Market Making," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 101-142, March.
    4. Olivier Gu'eant & Charles-Albert Lehalle & Joaquin Fernandez Tapia, 2011. "Dealing with the Inventory Risk. A solution to the market making problem," Papers 1105.3115, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2012.
    5. Ã Lvaro Cartea & Sebastian Jaimungal & Leandro Sã Nchez-Betancourt, 2021. "Latency And Liquidity Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 24(06n07), pages 1-37, September.
    6. Philippe Bergault & David Evangelista & Olivier Guéant & Douglas Vieira, 2021. "Closed-form Approximations in Multi-asset Market Making," Post-Print hal-03885121, HAL.
    7. Oomen, Roel, 2017. "Execution in an aggregator," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67454, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Roel Oomen, 2017. "Execution in an aggregator," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 383-404, March.
    9. Alexander Barzykin & Philippe Bergault & Olivier Guéant, 2023. "Algorithmic market making in dealer markets with hedging and market impact," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 41-79, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Barzykin, 2026. "Win-score promotion gates in aggregator-routed RFQ markets: A two-tier stochastic control model," Papers 2603.10569, arXiv.org.

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