IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2602.16401.html

Stackelberg Equilibria in Monopoly Insurance Markets with Probability Weighting

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Andraos
  • Mario Ghossoub
  • Bin Li
  • Benxuan Shi

Abstract

We study Stackelberg Equilibria (Bowley optima) in a monopolistic centralized sequential-move insurance market, with a profit-maximizing insurer who sets premia using a distortion premium principle, and a single policyholder who seeks to minimize a distortion risk measure. We show that equilibria are characterized as follows: In equilibrium, the optimal indemnity function exhibits a layer-type structure, providing full insurance over any loss layer on which the policyholder is more pessimistic than the insurer's pricing functional about tail losses; and no insurance coverage over loss layers on which the policyholder is less pessimistic than the insurer's pricing functional about tail losses. In equilibrium, the optimal pricing distortion function is determined by the policyholder's degree of risk aversion, whereby prices never exceed the policyholder's marginal willingness to insure tail losses. Moreover, we show that both the insurance coverage and the insurer's expected profit increase with the policyholder's degree of risk aversion. Additionally, and echoing recent work in the literature, we show that equilibrium contracts are Pareto efficient, but they do not induce a welfare gain to the policyholder. Conversely, any Pareto-optimal contract that leaves no welfare gain to the policyholder can be obtained as an equilibrium contract. Finally, we consider a few examples of interest that recover some existing results in the literature as special cases of our analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Andraos & Mario Ghossoub & Bin Li & Benxuan Shi, 2026. "Stackelberg Equilibria in Monopoly Insurance Markets with Probability Weighting," Papers 2602.16401, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2602.16401
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.16401
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tim J. Boonen & Ka Chun Cheung & Yiying Zhang, 2021. "Bowley reinsurance with asymmetric information on the insurer's risk preferences," Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2021(7), pages 623-644, August.
    2. Andraos, Maria & Ghossoub, Mario & Zhu, Michael B., 2026. "Subgame perfect Nash equilibria in large reinsurance markets," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Chan, Fung-Yee & Gerber, Hans U., 1985. "The Reinsurer's Monopoly and the Bowley Solution," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 141-148, November.
    4. Yaari, Menahem E, 1987. "The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 95-115, January.
    5. Cheung, Ka Chun & Yam, Sheung Chi Phillip & Zhang, Yiying, 2019. "Risk-adjusted Bowley reinsurance under distorted probabilities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 64-72.
    6. Guillaume Carlier & Rose-Anne Dana, 2003. "Pareto efficient insurance contracts when the insurer's cost function is discontinuous," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 21(4), pages 871-893, June.
    7. Ghossoub, Mario & Zhu, Michael B., 2024. "Stackelberg equilibria with multiple policyholders," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 189-201.
    8. Tim J. Boonen & Yiying Zhang, 2022. "Bowley reinsurance with asymmetric information: a first-best solution," Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2022(6), pages 532-551, July.
    9. Drazen Prelec, 1998. "The Probability Weighting Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 497-528, May.
    10. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    11. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5394 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Ghossoub, Mario & Li, Bin & Shi, Benxuan, 2025. "Bowley-optimal convex-loaded premium principles," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 157-180.
    13. Han Bleichrodt & Simon Grant & Jingni Yang, 2023. "Testing Hurwicz Expected Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(4), pages 1393-1416, July.
    14. Hong, Chew Soo & Karni, Edi & Safra, Zvi, 1987. "Risk aversion in the theory of expected utility with rank dependent probabilities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 370-381, August.
    15. Assa, Hirbod, 2015. "On optimal reinsurance policy with distortion risk measures and premiums," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 70-75.
    16. Ghossoub, Mario & He, Xue Dong, 2021. "Comparative risk aversion in RDEU with applications to optimal underwriting of securities issuance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PA), pages 6-22.
    17. Boonen, Tim J. & Ghossoub, Mario, 2023. "Bowley vs. Pareto optima in reinsurance contracting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(1), pages 382-391.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mario Ghossoub & Michael B. Zhu & Wing Fung Chong, 2024. "Pareto-Optimal Peer-to-Peer Risk Sharing with Robust Distortion Risk Measures," Papers 2409.05103, arXiv.org.
    2. Ghossoub, Mario & Zhu, Michael B., 2024. "Stackelberg equilibria with multiple policyholders," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 189-201.
    3. Ghossoub, Mario & Li, Bin & Shi, Benxuan, 2025. "Bowley-optimal convex-loaded premium principles," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 157-180.
    4. Ghossoub, Mario, 2019. "Optimal insurance under rank-dependent expected utility," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 51-66.
    5. Ziyue Shi & David Landriault & Fangda Liu, 2024. "Performance-based variable premium scheme and reinsurance design," Papers 2412.01704, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2025.
    6. Matthew D. Rablen, 2023. "Loss Aversion, Risk Aversion, and the Shape of the Probability Weighting Function," Working Papers 2023013, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    7. Louis R. Eeckhoudt & Roger J. A. Laeven, 2021. "Probability Premium and Attitude Towards Probability," Papers 2105.00054, arXiv.org.
    8. Cao, Jingyi & Li, Dongchen & Young, Virginia R. & Zou, Bin, 2025. "Co-opetition in reinsurance markets: When Pareto meets Stackelberg and Nash," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    9. Eeckhoudt, Louis R. & Laeven, Roger J.A. & Schlesinger, Harris, 2020. "Risk apportionment: The dual story," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    10. Dorian Jullien & Alexandre Truc, 2024. "Towards a history of behavioural and experimental economics in France," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 998-1033, November.
    11. Diecidue, Enrico & Schmidt, Ulrich & Zank, Horst, 2009. "Parametric weighting functions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 1102-1118, May.
    12. Matthieu De Lapparent & Moshe Ben-Akiva, 2014. "Risk Aversion in Travel Mode Choice with Rank-Dependent Utility," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 189-204, December.
    13. Boonen, Tim J. & Ghossoub, Mario, 2019. "On the existence of a representative reinsurer under heterogeneous beliefs," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 209-225.
    14. Guanyu Jin & Roger J. A. Laeven & Dick den Hertog, 2025. "Robust Optimization of Rank-Dependent Models with Uncertain Probabilities," Papers 2502.11780, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2025.
    15. Maria Andraos & Mario Ghossoub, 2026. "Incentive Pareto Efficiency in Monopoly Insurance Markets with Adverse Selection," Papers 2602.09967, arXiv.org.
    16. Patrick Beissner & Tim Boonen & Mario Ghossoub, 2026. "Betting under Common Beliefs: The Effect of Probability Weighting," Papers 2602.24194, arXiv.org.
    17. Zhu, Michael B. & Ghossoub, Mario & Boonen, Tim J., 2023. "Equilibria and efficiency in a reinsurance market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 24-49.
    18. Wakker, Peter P. & Yang, Jingni, 2021. "Concave/convex weighting and utility functions for risk: A new light on classical theorems," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 429-435.
    19. Mario Ghossoub & Michael Boyuan Zhu, 2025. "Risk-constrained portfolio choice under rank-dependent utility," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 399-442, April.
    20. Johannes G. Jaspersen & Richard Peter & Marc A. Ragin, 2023. "Probability weighting and insurance demand in a unified framework," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 48(1), pages 63-109, March.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2602.16401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.