IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2505.08852.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measure-Valued CARMA Processes

Author

Listed:
  • Fred Espen Benth
  • Sven Karbach
  • Asma Khedher

Abstract

In this paper, we examine continuous-time autoregressive moving-average (CARMA) processes on Banach spaces driven by L\'evy subordinators. We show their existence and cone-invariance, investigate their first and second order moment structure, and derive explicit conditions for their stationarity. Specifically, we define a measure-valued CARMA process as the analytically weak solution of a linear state-space model in the Banach space of finite signed measures. By selecting suitable input, transition, and output operators in the linear state-space model, we show that the resulting solution possesses CARMA dynamics and remains in the cone of positive measures defined on some spatial domain. We also illustrate how positive measure-valued CARMA processes can be used to model the dynamics of functionals of spatio-temporal random fields and connect our framework to existing CARMA-type models from the literature, highlighting its flexibility and broader applicability.

Suggested Citation

  • Fred Espen Benth & Sven Karbach & Asma Khedher, 2025. "Measure-Valued CARMA Processes," Papers 2505.08852, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.08852
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2505.08852
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benth, Fred Espen & Taib, Che Mohd Imran Che, 2013. "On the speed towards the mean for continuous time autoregressive moving average processes with applications to energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 259-268.
    2. Cox, Sonja & Karbach, Sven & Khedher, Asma, 2022. "Affine pure-jump processes on positive Hilbert–Schmidt operators," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 191-229.
    3. Fred Espen Benth & Jūratė Šaltytė Benth, 2012. "Modeling and Pricing in Financial Markets for Weather Derivatives," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8457, April.
    4. Albert N. Shiryaev & Jan Kallsen, 2002. "The cumulant process and Esscher's change of measure," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 397-428.
    5. Peter Brockwell & Alexander Lindner, 2013. "Integration of CARMA processes and spot volatility modelling," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 156-167, March.
    6. Christa Cuchiero & Luca Di Persio & Francesco Guida & Sara Svaluto-Ferro, 2022. "Measure-valued processes for energy markets," Papers 2210.09331, arXiv.org.
    7. Marquardt, Tina, 2007. "Multivariate fractionally integrated CARMA processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 98(9), pages 1705-1725, October.
    8. Benth, Fred Espen & Karbach, Sven, 2023. "Multivariate continuous-time autoregressive moving-average processes on cones," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 299-337.
    9. Benth, Fred Espen & Saltyte Benth, Jurate, 2009. "Dynamic pricing of wind futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 16-24, January.
    10. Fred Espen Benth & Asma Khedher & Michèle Vanmaele, 2020. "Pricing of Commodity Derivatives on Processes with Memory," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, January.
    11. Marquardt, Tina & Stelzer, Robert, 2007. "Multivariate CARMA processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 96-120, January.
    12. Benth, Fred Espen & Klüppelberg, Claudia & Müller, Gernot & Vos, Linda, 2014. "Futures pricing in electricity markets based on stable CARMA spot models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 392-406.
    13. Brockwell, Peter J. & Schlemm, Eckhard, 2013. "Parametric estimation of the driving Lévy process of multivariate CARMA processes from discrete observations," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 217-251.
    14. Henghsiu Tsai & K. S. Chan, 2005. "A note on non‐negative continuous time processes," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(4), pages 589-597, September.
    15. Sonja Cox & Sven Karbach & Asma Khedher, 2022. "An infinite‐dimensional affine stochastic volatility model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 878-906, July.
    16. Benth, Fred Espen & Koekebakker, Steen, 2008. "Stochastic modeling of financial electricity contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1116-1157, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benth, Fred Espen & Karbach, Sven, 2023. "Multivariate continuous-time autoregressive moving-average processes on cones," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 299-337.
    2. P. Brockwell, 2014. "Recent results in the theory and applications of CARMA processes," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 66(4), pages 647-685, August.
    3. Péter Kevei, 2018. "Asymptotic moving average representation of high-frequency sampled multivariate CARMA processes," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 70(2), pages 467-487, April.
    4. Fred Espen Benth & Marco Piccirilli & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2017. "Additive energy forward curves in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework," Papers 1709.03310, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
    5. Mercuri, Lorenzo & Perchiazzo, Andrea & Rroji, Edit, 2024. "A Hawkes model with CARMA(p,q) intensity," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-26.
    6. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera & Awdesch Melzer, 2021. "Pricing wind power futures," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1083-1102, August.
    7. Basse-O’Connor, Andreas & Nielsen, Mikkel Slot & Pedersen, Jan & Rohde, Victor, 2019. "Multivariate stochastic delay differential equations and CAR representations of CARMA processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 129(10), pages 4119-4143.
    8. Brockwell, Peter J. & Schlemm, Eckhard, 2013. "Parametric estimation of the driving Lévy process of multivariate CARMA processes from discrete observations," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 217-251.
    9. Deschatre, Thomas & Féron, Olivier & Gruet, Pierre, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    10. Vicky Fasen, 2016. "Dependence Estimation for High-frequency Sampled Multivariate CARMA Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 43(1), pages 292-320, March.
    11. Fasen-Hartmann, Vicky & Mayer, Celeste, 2023. "Empirical spectral processes for stationary state space models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 319-354.
    12. Fred Espen Benth & Heidar Eyjolfsson, 2024. "Robustness of Hilbert space-valued stochastic volatility models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 1117-1146, October.
    13. Július Bemš & Caner Aydin, 2022. "Introduction to weather derivatives," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), May.
    14. Holger Fink, 2016. "Conditional Distributions of Mandelbrot–van ness Fractional LÉVY Processes and Continuous-Time ARMA–GARCH-Type Models with Long Memory," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 30-45, January.
    15. Fred Espen Benth & Heidar Eyjolfsson, 2022. "Robustness of Hilbert space-valued stochastic volatility models," Papers 2211.16071, arXiv.org.
    16. Nielsen, Mikkel Slot, 2020. "On non-stationary solutions to MSDDEs: Representations and the cointegration space," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(5), pages 3154-3173.
    17. Abbaspour, Manijeh & Vajargah, Kianoush Fathi & Azhdari, Parvin, 2023. "An efficient algorithm for pricing reinsurance contract under the regime-switching model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 278-300.
    18. Benth, Fred Espen & Paraschiv, Florentina, 2016. "A Structural Model for Electricity Forward Prices," Working Papers on Finance 1611, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    19. Fasen-Hartmann, Vicky & Schenk, Lea, 2025. "Mixed orthogonality graphs for continuous-time stationary processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    20. Cuchiero, Christa & Di Persio, Luca & Guida, Francesco & Svaluto-Ferro, Sara, 2024. "Measure-valued affine and polynomial diffusions," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.08852. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.