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Integrating LLM-Generated Views into Mean-Variance Optimization Using the Black-Litterman Model

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  • Youngbin Lee
  • Yejin Kim
  • Suin Kim
  • Yongjae Lee

Abstract

Portfolio optimization faces challenges due to the sensitivity in traditional mean-variance models. The Black-Litterman model mitigates this by integrating investor views, but defining these views remains difficult. This study explores the integration of large language models (LLMs) generated views into portfolio optimization using the Black-Litterman framework. Our method leverages LLMs to estimate expected stock returns from historical prices and company metadata, incorporating uncertainty through the variance in predictions. We conduct a backtest of the LLM-optimized portfolios from June 2024 to February 2025, rebalancing biweekly using the previous two weeks of price data. As baselines, we compare against the S&P 500, an equal-weighted portfolio, and a traditional mean-variance optimized portfolio constructed using the same set of stocks. Empirical results suggest that different LLMs exhibit varying levels of predictive optimism and confidence stability, which impact portfolio performance. The source code and data are available at https://github.com/youngandbin/LLM-MVO-BLM.

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  • Youngbin Lee & Yejin Kim & Suin Kim & Yongjae Lee, 2025. "Integrating LLM-Generated Views into Mean-Variance Optimization Using the Black-Litterman Model," Papers 2504.14345, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2504.14345
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2504.14345
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    1. Yoontae Hwang & Yaxuan Kong & Stefan Zohren & Yongjae Lee, 2025. "Decision-informed Neural Networks with Large Language Model Integration for Portfolio Optimization," Papers 2502.00828, arXiv.org.
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