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The allocation of FIFA World Cup slots based on the ranking of confederations

Author

Listed:
  • L'aszl'o Csat'o
  • L'aszl'o Marcell Kiss
  • Zsombor Sz'adoczki

Abstract

Qualifications for several world championships in sports are organised such that distinct sets of teams play in their own tournament for a predetermined number of slots. Inspired by a recent work studying the problem with the tools from the literature on fair allocation, this paper provides an alternative approach based on historical matches between these sets of teams. We focus on the FIFA World Cup due to the existence of an official rating system and its recent expansion to 48 teams, as well as to allow for a comparison with the already suggested allocations. Our proposal extends the methodology of the FIFA World Ranking to compare the strengths of five confederations. Various allocations are presented depending on the length of the sample, the set of teams considered, as well as the frequency of rating updates. The results show that more European and South American teams should play in the FIFA World Cup. The ranking of continents by the number of deserved slots is different from the ranking implied by FIFA policy. We recommend allocating at least some slots transparently, based on historical performances, similar to the access list of the UEFA Champions League.

Suggested Citation

  • L'aszl'o Csat'o & L'aszl'o Marcell Kiss & Zsombor Sz'adoczki, 2023. "The allocation of FIFA World Cup slots based on the ranking of confederations," Papers 2310.19100, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2310.19100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alex Krumer & Juan D. Moreno-Ternero, 2023. "The Allocation of Additional Slots for the FIFA World Cup," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(7), pages 831-850, October.
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    4. Chater, Mario & Arrondel, Luc & Gayant, Jean-Pascal & Laslier, Jean-François, 2021. "Fixing match-fixing: Optimal schedules to promote competitiveness," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(2), pages 673-683.
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    6. Csató, László, 2022. "Quantifying incentive (in)compatibility: A case study from sports," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(2), pages 717-726.
    7. Guajardo, Mario & Krumer, Alex, 2023. "Format and schedule proposals for a FIFA World Cup with 12 four-team groups," Discussion Papers 2023/2, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    8. Sebastián Cea & Guillermo Durán & Mario Guajardo & Denis Sauré & Joaquín Siebert & Gonzalo Zamorano, 2020. "An analytics approach to the FIFA ranking procedure and the World Cup final draw," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 286(1), pages 119-146, March.
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    1. Csató, László & Szádoczki, Zsombor & Kiss, László Marcell, 2024. "A labdarúgó-világbajnokság kvóta elosztása páros összehasonlításokkal [Football World Cup quota distribution with pairwise comparisons]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 791-806.

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