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Nonparametric Adaptive Robust Control Under Model Uncertainty

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  • Erhan Bayraktar
  • Tao Chen

Abstract

We consider a discrete time stochastic Markovian control problem under model uncertainty. Such uncertainty not only comes from the fact that the true probability law of the underlying stochastic process is unknown, but the parametric family of probability distributions which the true law belongs to is also unknown. We propose a nonparametric adaptive robust control methodology to deal with such problem. Our approach hinges on the following building concepts: first, using the adaptive robust paradigm to incorporate online learning and uncertainty reduction into the robust control problem; second, learning the unknown probability law through the empirical distribution, and representing uncertainty reduction in terms of a sequence of Wasserstein balls around the empirical distribution; third, using Lagrangian duality to convert the optimization over Wasserstein balls to a scalar optimization problem, and adopting a machine learning technique to achieve efficient computation of the optimal control. We illustrate our methodology by considering a utility maximization problem. Numerical comparisons show that the nonparametric adaptive robust control approach is preferable to the traditional robust frameworks.

Suggested Citation

  • Erhan Bayraktar & Tao Chen, 2022. "Nonparametric Adaptive Robust Control Under Model Uncertainty," Papers 2202.10391, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2202.10391
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2202.10391
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Bartl & Samuel Drapeau & Jan Obloj & Johannes Wiesel, 2020. "Sensitivity analysis of Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization problems," Papers 2006.12022, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    2. Jan Obloj & Johannes Wiesel, 2021. "Distributionally robust portfolio maximisation and marginal utility pricing in one period financial markets," Papers 2105.00935, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    3. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Robust Control and Model Misspecification," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 6, pages 155-216, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Jan Obłój & Johannes Wiesel, 2021. "Distributionally robust portfolio maximization and marginal utility pricing in one period financial markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1454-1493, October.
    5. Marcel Nutz, 2016. "Utility Maximization Under Model Uncertainty In Discrete Time," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 252-268, April.
    6. Tao Chen & Jiyoun Myung, 2020. "Nonparametric Adaptive Bayesian Stochastic Control Under Model Uncertainty," Papers 2011.04804, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    7. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Erhan Bayraktar & Tao Chen, 2023. "Data-Driven Non-Parametric Robust Control under Dependence Uncertainty," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Robert A Jarrow & Dilip B Madan (ed.), Peter Carr Gedenkschrift Research Advances in Mathematical Finance, chapter 5, pages 141-178, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

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