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From bid-ask credit default swap quotes to risk-neutral default probabilities using distorted expectations

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  • Matteo Michielon
  • Asma Khedher
  • Peter Spreij

Abstract

Risk-neutral default probabilities can be implied from credit default swap (CDS) market quotes. In practice, mid CDS quotes are used as inputs, as their risk-neutral counterparts are not observable. We show how to imply risk-neutral default probabilities from bid and ask quotes directly by means of formulating the CDS calibration problem to bid and ask market quotes within the conic finance framework. Assuming the risk-neutral distribution of the default time to be driven by a Poisson process we prove, under mild liquidity-related assumptions, that the calibration problem admits a unique solution that also allows to jointly calculate the implied liquidity of the market.

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  • Matteo Michielon & Asma Khedher & Peter Spreij, 2021. "From bid-ask credit default swap quotes to risk-neutral default probabilities using distorted expectations," Papers 2108.06578, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2108.06578
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    1. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    2. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Madan,Dilip & Schoutens,Wim, 2016. "Applied Conic Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107151697.
    4. Madan, Dilip B., 2014. "Modeling and monitoring risk acceptability in markets: The case of the credit default swap market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 63-73.
    5. Benjamin Junge & Anders B. Trolle, 2013. "Liquidity Risk in Credit Default Swap Markets," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 13-65, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Aug 2015.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Michielon & Asma Khedher & Peter Spreij, 2021. "Liquidity-free implied volatilities: an approach using conic finance," Papers 2110.11718, arXiv.org.

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