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From optimal martingales to randomized dual optimal stopping

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  • Denis Belomestny
  • John Schoenmakers

Abstract

In this article we study and classify optimal martingales in the dual formulation of optimal stopping problems. In this respect we distinguish between weakly optimal and surely optimal martingales. It is shown that the family of weakly optimal and surely optimal martingales may be quite large. On the other hand it is shown that the Doob-martingale, that is, the martingale part of the Snell envelope, is in a certain sense the most robust surely optimal martingale under random perturbations. This new insight leads to a novel randomized dual martingale minimization algorithm that doesn't require nested simulation. As a main feature, in a possibly large family of optimal martingales the algorithm efficiently selects a martingale that is as close as possible to the Doob martingale. As a result, one obtains the dual upper bound for the optimal stopping problem with low variance.

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  • Denis Belomestny & John Schoenmakers, 2021. "From optimal martingales to randomized dual optimal stopping," Papers 2102.01533, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2102.01533
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Vijay V. Desai & Vivek F. Farias & Ciamac C. Moallemi, 2012. "Pathwise Optimization for Optimal Stopping Problems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(12), pages 2292-2308, December.
    8. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
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