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Epidemic control via stochastic optimal control

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  • Andrew Lesniewski

Abstract

We study the problem of optimal control of the stochastic SIR model. Models of this type are used in mathematical epidemiology to capture the time evolution of highly infectious diseases such as COVID-19. Our approach relies on reformulating the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation as a stochastic minimum principle. This results in a system of forward backward stochastic differential equations, which is amenable to numerical solution via Monte Carlo simulations. We present a number of numerical solutions of the system under a variety of scenarios.

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  • Andrew Lesniewski, 2020. "Epidemic control via stochastic optimal control," Papers 2004.06680, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.06680
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bouchard, Bruno & Touzi, Nizar, 2004. "Discrete-time approximation and Monte-Carlo simulation of backward stochastic differential equations," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 175-206, June.
    2. N. El Karoui & S. Peng & M. C. Quenez, 1997. "Backward Stochastic Differential Equations in Finance," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-71, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tsiligianni, Christiana & Tsiligiannis, Aristeides & Tsiliyannis, Christos, 2023. "A stochastic inventory model of COVID-19 and robust, real-time identification of carriers at large and infection rate via asymptotic laws," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 42-56.

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