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Why Do Markets Crash? Bitcoin Data Offers Unprecedented Insights

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  • Jonathan Donier
  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Abstract

Crashes have fascinated and baffled many canny observers of financial markets. In the strict orthodoxy of the efficient market theory, crashes must be due to sudden changes of the fundamental valuation of assets. However, detailed empirical studies suggest that large price jumps cannot be explained by news and are the result of endogenous feedback loops. Although plausible, a clear-cut empirical evidence for such a scenario is still lacking. Here we show how crashes are conditioned by the market liquidity, for which we propose a new measure inspired by recent theories of market impact and based on readily available, public information. Our results open the possibility of a dynamical evaluation of liquidity risk and early warning signs of market instabilities, and could lead to a quantitative description of the mechanisms leading to market crashes.

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  • Jonathan Donier & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2015. "Why Do Markets Crash? Bitcoin Data Offers Unprecedented Insights," Papers 1503.06704, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1503.06704
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Julien Kockelkoren & Marc Potters, 2006. "Random walks, liquidity molasses and critical response in financial markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 115-123.
    2. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    6. Iacopo Mastromatteo & Bence Toth & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2013. "Agent-based models for latent liquidity and concave price impact," Papers 1311.6262, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2014.
    7. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    8. Bence Toth & Yves Lemperiere & Cyril Deremble & Joachim de Lataillade & Julien Kockelkoren & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2011. "Anomalous price impact and the critical nature of liquidity in financial markets," Papers 1105.1694, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2011.
    9. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
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