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Non stationary multifractality in stock returns


  • Raffaello Morales
  • T. Di Matteo
  • Tomaso Aste


We perform an extensive empirical analysis of scaling properties of equity returns, suggesting that financial data show time varying multifractal properties. This is obtained by comparing empirical observations of the weighted generalised Hurst exponent (wGHE) with time series simulated via Multifractal Random Walk (MRW) by Bacry \textit{et al.} [\textit{E.Bacry, J.Delour and J.Muzy, Phys.Rev.E \,{\bf 64} 026103, 2001}]. While dynamical wGHE computed on synthetic MRW series is consistent with a scenario where multifractality is constant over time, fluctuations in the dynamical wGHE observed in empirical data are not in agreement with a MRW with constant intermittency parameter. We test these hypotheses of constant multifractality considering different specifications of MRW model with fatter tails: in all cases considered, although the thickness of the tails accounts for most of anomalous fluctuations of multifractality, still cannot fully explain the observed fluctuations.

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  • Raffaello Morales & T. Di Matteo & Tomaso Aste, 2012. "Non stationary multifractality in stock returns," Papers 1212.3195,, revised May 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1212.3195

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Griselda Deelstra & Jan Liinev & Michèle Vanmaele, 2004. "Pricing of arithmetic basket options by conditioning," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7600, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Michael Curran, 1994. "Valuing Asian and Portfolio Options by Conditioning on the Geometric Mean Price," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(12), pages 1705-1711, December.
    6. H. Albrecher & P. A. Mayer & W. Schoutens, 2008. "General Lower Bounds for Arithmetic Asian Option Prices," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 123-149.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Hojin & Song, Jae Wook & Chang, Woojin, 2016. "Multifractal Value at Risk model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 451(C), pages 113-122.
    2. Leopoldo S'anchez-Cant'u & Carlos Arturo Soto-Campos & Andriy Kryvko, 2016. "Evidence of Self-Organization in Time Series of Capital Markets," Papers 1604.03996,, revised Mar 2017.

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