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Timing Decisions under Model Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah Auster

    (Department of Economics, University of Bonn and CEPR)

  • Christian Kellner

    (Department of Economics, University of Southampton)

Abstract

We study the effect of ambiguity on timing decisions. An agent faces a stopping problem with an uncertain stopping payoff and a stochastic time limit. The agent is unsure about the correct model quantifying the uncertainty and seeks to maximize her payoff guarantee over a set of plausible models. As time passes and the agent updates, the worst-case model used to evaluate a given strategy can change, creating a problem of dynamic inconsistency. We characterize the stopping behavior in this environment and show that, while the agent’s myopic incentives are fragile to small changes in the set of considered models, the best consistent plan from which no future self has incentives to deviate is robust.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Auster & Christian Kellner, 2023. "Timing Decisions under Model Uncertainty," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 252, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:252
    as

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    File URL: https://www.econtribute.de/RePEc/ajk/ajkdps/ECONtribute_252_2023.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2023
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gilboa Itzhak & Schmeidler David, 1993. "Updating Ambiguous Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 33-49, February.
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    4. Sarah Auster & Yeon-Koo Che & Konrad Mierendorff, 2024. "Prolonged Learning and Hasty Stopping: The Wald Problem with Ambiguity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(2), pages 426-461, February.
    5. Kellner, Christian & Le Quement, Mark T., 2018. "Endogenous ambiguity in cheap talk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-17.
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    11. Zuo Quan Xu & Xun Yu Zhou, 2011. "Optimal stopping under probability distortion," Papers 1103.1755, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2013.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stopping problem; ambiguity; consistent planning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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