Implications of EU Enlargement for Agricultural Markets in the New Member States

The paper presents an analysis of the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy implementation on the agricultural markets of the eight new EU Member States. The study is based on the AGMEMOD (AGricultural MEmber states MODelling) national econometric models. Two scenarios are simulated for each country. The "Baseline" scenario assumes the implementation of the Single Area Payment Scheme until 2008 and the subsequent introduction of the Single Payment Scheme from 2009 onwards. Complementary national direct payments would remain in force until 2013. The second scenario assumes the full decoupling of direct payments from 2007 and the introduction of modulation from 2013 onwards in the 2004 enlargement new Member States (EU-8). The baseline scenario projections suggest that the introduction of direct payments would expand EU-8 aggregate production, mainly of oilseeds, grains, sheepmeat and cheese, while beef and veal production would also increase. Consumption of more expensive beef and veal meat would be substituted by poultry and pigmeat. Full decoupling of direct payments will have only a moderate impact on the balance of supply and use for crop and animal production.