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Implications of EU Enlargement for Agricultural Markets in the New Member States


  • van Leeuwen, Myrna
  • Bartova, Lubica
  • M'Barek, Robert
  • Erjavec, Emil


The paper presents an analysis of the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy implementation on the agricultural markets of the eight new EU Member States. The study is based on the AGMEMOD (AGricultural MEmber states MODelling) national econometric models. Two scenarios are simulated for each country. The "Baseline" scenario assumes the implementation of the Single Area Payment Scheme until 2008 and the subsequent introduction of the Single Payment Scheme from 2009 onwards. Complementary national direct payments would remain in force until 2013. The second scenario assumes the full decoupling of direct payments from 2007 and the introduction of modulation from 2013 onwards in the 2004 enlargement new Member States (EU-8). The baseline scenario projections suggest that the introduction of direct payments would expand EU-8 aggregate production, mainly of oilseeds, grains, sheepmeat and cheese, while beef and veal production would also increase. Consumption of more expensive beef and veal meat would be substituted by poultry and pigmeat. Full decoupling of direct payments will have only a moderate impact on the balance of supply and use for crop and animal production.

Suggested Citation

  • van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bartova, Lubica & M'Barek, Robert & Erjavec, Emil, 2007. "Implications of EU Enlargement for Agricultural Markets in the New Member States," 104th Seminar, September 5-8, 2007, Budapest, Hungary 8522, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:eaa104:8522
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.8522

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    Cited by:

    1. Myrna van Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Thomas Fellmann & Martin Banse & Oliver von Ledebur & Guna Salputra & Olexandr Nekhay & Robert M'barek, 2012. "The agri-food sector in Ukraine: Current situation and market outlook until 2025," JRC Working Papers JRC71776, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    2. Thomas Fellmann & Myrna Van Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Ali Koç & Gülden Bölük & Andrzej Tabeau & Roberto Esposti & Andrea Bonfiglio & Antonello Lobianco & Kevin Hanrahan, 2011. "Potential impacts on agricultural commodity markets of an EU enlargement to Turkey Extension of the AGMEMOD model towards Turkey and accession scenario," JRC Working Papers JRC60663, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).
    3. Banse, Martin & Salamon, Petra & Ledebur, Oliver von & van Leeuwen, Myrna & Bouma, Foppe & Salputra, Guna & Fellmann, Thomas & Nekhay, Olexandr, 2012. "Impact of Russia and Ukraine on the international price formation and the EU markets - A Model based analysis," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122536, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Guna Salputra & Myrna van Leeuwen & Petra Salamon & Thomas Fellmann & Martin Banse & Oliver Ledebur, 2013. "The agri-food sector in Russia: Current situation and market outlook until 2025," JRC Working Papers JRC76915, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).

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