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Do Investors Learn About Analyst Accuracy?

Author

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  • Chang, Charles
  • Daouk, Hazem
  • Wang, Albert

Abstract

We study the impact of analyst forecasts on prices to determine whether investors learn about analyst accuracy. Our test market is the crude oil futures market. Prices rise when analysts forecast a decrease (increase) in crude supplies. In the 15 minutes following supply realizations, prices rise (fall) when forecasts have been too high (low). In both the initial price action relative to forecasts and in the subsequent reaction relative to realized forecast errors, the price response is stronger for more accurate analysts. These price reactions imply that investors learn about analyst accuracy and trade accordingly.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Charles & Daouk, Hazem & Wang, Albert, 2008. "Do Investors Learn About Analyst Accuracy?," Working Papers 51158, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:cudawp:51158
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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/51158
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    Cited by:

    1. Halova Wolfe, Marketa & Rosenman, Robert, 2014. "Bidirectional causality in oil and gas markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 325-331.
    2. Rousse, O. & Sévi, B., 2016. "Informed trading in oil-futures market," Working Papers 2016-07, Grenoble Applied Economics Laboratory (GAEL).
    3. Alexander Kurov & Alessio Sancetta & Georg H. Strasser & Marketa Halova Wolfe, 2015. "Price Drift before U.S. Macroeconomic News: Private Information about Public Announcements?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 881, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 29 Jul 2015.
    4. Don Bredin & John Elder & Stilianos Fountas, 2011. "Oil volatility and the option value of waiting: An analysis of the G‐7," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 679-702, July.

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