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Modelling the Inflation Process in Nigeria

Author

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  • Olusanya E. Olubusoye
  • Rasheed Oyaromade

    (Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia)

Abstract

This study is motivated by the conviction that inflation entails sizeable economic and social costs, and controlling it is one of the prerequisites for achieving a sustainable economic growth. The study analyses the main sources of fluctuations in inflation in Nigeria. Using the framework of error correction mechanism, it was found that the lagged CPI, expected inflation, petroleum prices and real exchange rate significantly propagate the dynamics of inflationary process in Nigeria. The level of output was found to be insignificant in the parsimonious error correction model. Surprisingly, the coefficient of the lagged value of money supply was found to be negative and significant only at the 10% level. One of the major implications of this result is that efforts of the monetary regulating authorities to stabilize the domestic prices would continuously be disrupted by volatility in the international price of crude oil.

Suggested Citation

  • Olusanya E. Olubusoye & Rasheed Oyaromade, 2008. "Modelling the Inflation Process in Nigeria," Working Papers 182, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:aer:wpaper:182
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dick Durevall & Bo Sjö, 2012. "Working Paper 151 - The Dynamics of Inflation in Ethiopia and Kenya," Working Paper Series 400, African Development Bank.
    2. Perekunah. B. Eregha, 2022. "Asymmetric response of cpi inflation to exchange rates in oil-dependent developing economy: the case of Nigeria," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 1091-1108, May.
    3. Lin, Boqiang & Wu, Ya & Zhang, Li, 2012. "Electricity saving potential of the power generation industry in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 307-316.
    4. Bruno Ferreira Frascaroli & Jailson da Conceição Teixeira de Oliveira, 2017. "Sub-Saharan African Countries’ Dependence on the External Inflation: Empirical Evidence Using Copulas," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(12), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Temitope Leshoro & Umakrishnan Kollamparambil, 2016. "Inflation Or Output Targeting? Monetary Policy Appropriateness In South Africa," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 69(276), pages 77-104.
    6. Njimanted, Godfrey Forgha & Nkwetta Ajong Aquilas, 2015. "The Impact of Timber Exports on Economic Growth in Cameroon: An Econometric Investigation," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(3), pages 46-60, September.
    7. Tumala, Mohammed M & Olubusoye, Olusanya E & Yaaba, Baba N & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Akanbi, Olawale B, 2017. "Investigating Predictors of Inflation in Nigeria: BMA and WALS Techniques," MPRA Paper 88773, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2018.
    8. Ayinde, O. E. & Adewumi, M O. & Nmadu, J. N. & Olatunji, G. B. & Egbugo, K., 2014. "Review of Marketing Board Policy: Comparative Analysis of Cocoa Pricing Eras in Nigeria," Nigerian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Nigerian Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 4(1).
    9. Idoko Ahmed Itodo & Seyi Saint Akadiri & Rotimi Mathew Ekundayo, 2017. "Monetary Policy and Price Stability in Nigeria," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 3(2), pages 68-75, June.
    10. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Ayalew Birru, Yohannes, 2013. "Inflation dynamics and food prices in Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 89-106.
    11. Ibrahim Abdulhamid Danlami & Mohamad Helmi Bin Hidthiir & Sallahuddin Hassan, 2019. "Dynamic Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Deficit on Inflation in Nigeria," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(2), pages 159-165, June.
    12. Emmanuel O. Akande & Elijah O. Akanni & Oyedamola F. Taiwo & Jeremiah D. Joshua & Abel Anthony, 2023. "Predicting inflation component drivers in Nigeria: a stacked ensemble approach," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-32, January.

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