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Growth in International Commodity Prices, the Terms of Trade, and GDP per capita: A Case Study of Vietnam

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  • Markus Brueckner
  • Kien Trung Nguyen

Abstract

The Vietnamese economy is characterized by a high degree of international trade openness and a relatively low GDP share of net-exports. This paper examines the effect of growth in the terms of trade, and more specifically, in international commodity prices, on Vietnam's GDP per capita growth. The paper finds that, during 2000-2014, growth in the terms of trade contributed positively to Vietnam’s GDP per capita growth but the effect is not large: less than one-tenth of Vietnam’s GDP per capita growth was due to growth in its terms of trade. The paper argues that the relatively small effect of growth in the terms of trade on GDP per capita growth is due to a low GDP share of net-exports. Econometric model estimates show that transitional convergence accounted for about half of Vietnam's GDP per capita growth during 2000-2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Brueckner & Kien Trung Nguyen, 2016. "Growth in International Commodity Prices, the Terms of Trade, and GDP per capita: A Case Study of Vietnam," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-643, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2016-643
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    File URL: https://www.cbe.anu.edu.au/researchpapers/econ/wp643.pdf
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    1. Jorge Thompson Araujo & Markus Brueckner & Mateo Clavijo & Ekaterina Vostroknutova & Konstantin M. Wacker, 2014. "Benchmarking the Determinants of Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Bank Publications - Reports 21318, The World Bank Group.
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