IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aah/create/2010-61.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Latent Integrated Stochastic Volatility, Realized Volatility, and Implied Volatility: A State Space Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Bach

    () (Aarhus University, School of Economics and Management and CREATES)

  • Bent Jesper Christensen

    () (Aarhus University, School of Economics and Management and CREATES)

Abstract

We include simultaneously both realized volatility measures based on high-frequency asset returns and implied volatilities backed out of individual traded at the money option prices in a state space approach to the analysis of true underlying volatility. We model integrated volatility as a latent fi?rst order Markov process and show that our model is closely related to the CEV and Barndorff-Nielsen & Shephard (2001) models for local volatility. We show that if measurement noise in the observable volatility proxies is not accounted for, then the estimated autoregressive parameter in the latent process is downward biased. Implied volatility performs better than any of the alternative realized measures when forecasting future integrated volatility. The results are largely similar across the stock market (S&P 500), bond market (30-year U.S. T-bond), and foreign currency exchange market ($/£ ).

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Bach & Bent Jesper Christensen, 2011. "Latent Integrated Stochastic Volatility, Realized Volatility, and Implied Volatility: A State Space Approach," CREATES Research Papers 2010-61, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2010-61
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://ftp.econ.au.dk/creates/rp/10/rp10_61.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kleppe, Tore Selland & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2011. "Efficient high-dimensional importance sampling in mixture frameworks," Economics Working Papers 2011-11, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Autoregression; bipower variation; high-frequency data; implied volatility; integrated volatility; Kalman fi?lter; moving average; option prices; realized volatility; state space model; stochastic volatility.;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aah:create:2010-61. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.