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Optimal Payout Ratio Under Uncertainty and the Flexibility Hypothesis: Theory and Empirical Evidence

In: HANDBOOK OF FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS, MATHEMATICS, STATISTICS, AND MACHINE LEARNING

Author

Listed:
  • Cheng Few Lee
  • Manak C. Gupta
  • Hong-Yi Chen
  • Alice C. Lee

Abstract

Following the dividend flexibility hypothesis used by DeAngelo and DeAngelo (2006), Blau and Fuller (2008), and others, we theoretically extend the proposition of DeAngelo and DeAngelo’s (2006) optimal payout policy in terms of the flexibility dividend hypothesis. In addition, we also introduce growth rate, systematic risk, and total risk variables into the theoretical model.To test the theoretical results derived in this paper, we use data collected in the US from 1969 to 2009 to investigate the impact of growth rate, systematic risk, and total risk on the optimal payout ratio in terms of the fixed-effect model. We find that based on flexibility considerations, a company will reduce its payout when the growth rate increases. In addition, we find that a nonlinear relationship exists between the payout ratio and the risk. In other words, the relationship between the payout ratio and risk is negative (or positive) when the growth rate is higher (or lower) than the rate of return on total assets. Our theoretical model and empirical results can therefore be used to identify whether flexibility or the free cash flow hypothesis should be used to determine the dividend policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng Few Lee & Manak C. Gupta & Hong-Yi Chen & Alice C. Lee, 2020. "Optimal Payout Ratio Under Uncertainty and the Flexibility Hypothesis: Theory and Empirical Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Cheng Few Lee & John C Lee (ed.), HANDBOOK OF FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS, MATHEMATICS, STATISTICS, AND MACHINE LEARNING, chapter 96, pages 3367-3412, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789811202391_0096
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ivan E. Brick & Hong-Yi Chen & Chia-Hsun Hsieh & Cheng-Few Lee, 2016. "A comparison of alternative models for estimating firm’s growth rate," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 369-393, August.
    3. Naumoski Aleksandar, 2022. "Financial Policy and Companies’ Sustainable Growth," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 60(3), pages 281-301, September.
    4. Michael Kinney & Harrison Liu, 2018. "Corporate responses to the repatriation incentives and domestic production activities deduction," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 623-651, February.
    5. Cheng Few Lee, 2020. "Financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and financial technology: an overall view," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1529-1578, May.
    6. Hong-Yi Chen & Manak C. Gupta & Alice C. Lee & Cheng Few Lee, 2020. "Sustainable Growth Rate, Optimal Growth Rate, and Optimal Payout Ratio: A Joint Optimization Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Cheng Few Lee & John C Lee (ed.), HANDBOOK OF FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS, MATHEMATICS, STATISTICS, AND MACHINE LEARNING, chapter 97, pages 3413-3464, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Stefan Dierkes & Ulrich Schäfer, 2017. "Corporate taxes, capital structure, and valuation: Combining Modigliani/Miller and Miles/Ezzell," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 363-383, February.
    8. Sin, C.Y. (Chor-yiu) & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2021. "Using heteroscedasticity-non-consistent or heteroscedasticity-consistent variances in linear regression," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 117-142.
    9. Hsuan-Chu Lin & She-Chih Chiu, 2017. "Tradeoff on corporate cash holdings: a theoretical and empirical analysis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 727-763, October.
    10. repec:tsa:wpaper:0142acc is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Pawan Jain & Quentin Chu, 2014. "Dividend clienteles: a global investigation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 509-534, April.
    12. Huang, Yin-Siang & Lee, Cheng-Few & Lin, Chih-Yung, 2023. "Applications of fixed effect models to managerial risk-taking incentives," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 249-261.
    13. Cheng-Few Lee & Woan-lih Liang & Fu-Lai Lin & Yating Yang, 2016. "Applications of simultaneous equations in finance research: methods and empirical results," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 943-971, November.
    14. Kuti, Mónika, 2011. "Cash Flow at Risk, Financial Flexibility and Financing Constraint," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 56(4), pages 505-517.
    15. Özgür Arslan-Ayaydin & Chris Florackis & Aydin Ozkan, 2014. "Financial flexibility, corporate investment and performance: evidence from financial crises," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 211-250, February.
    16. Hu, Jiamin & Li, Kailun & Xia, Yifei & Zhang, Jianing, 2023. "Gender diversity and financial flexibility: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    17. Bai-Sian Chen & Hong-Yi Chen & Hsiao-Yin Chen & Fang-Chi Lin, 2022. "Corporate growth and strategic payout policy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 641-669, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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