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Global Economic Prospects, January 2023

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  • World Bank

Abstract

Global growth is projected to decelerate sharply, reflecting synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation, worsening financial conditions, and continued disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to remain below its average rate of the past two decades. Further adverse shocks could push the global economy into recession. Small states are especially vulnerable to such shocks because of the reliance on external trade and financing, limited economic diversification, elevated debt, and susceptibility to natural disasters. Against this backdrop, it is critical that EMDE policy makers ensure that any fiscal support is focused on vulnerable groups, that inflation expectations remain well anchored, and that financial systems continue to be resilient. Urgent global and national efforts are also needed to mitigate the risks of global recession and debt distress in EMDEs, and to support a major increase in EMDE investment.

Suggested Citation

  • World Bank, 2023. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2023," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 38030, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbpubs:38030
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    File URL: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstreams/254aba87-dfeb-5b5c-b00a-727d04ade275/download
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diego Rivetti, 2021. "Debt Transparency in Developing Economies," World Bank Publications - Reports 36505, The World Bank Group.
    2. Brito, João Antonio, 2015. "Social Cohesion and Economic Growth: Small States vs Large States," MPRA Paper 66118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2023. "Slowing Growth: More Than a Rough Patch," CAMA Working Papers 2023-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Hajar Amiza binti Hamim & Siti Ayu Jalil, 2024. "Examining The Impact of Macroeconomics Factors on Carbon Emissions in Selected 7-ASEAN Members: A Panel Data Analysis," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 16(3), pages 203-212.
    3. Francisco Arroyo Marioli & Garima Vasishtha, 2025. "Fiscal Policy Procyclicality and Volatility in Commodity-Exporting Emerging and Developing Economies : Determinants and Implications for Growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11037, The World Bank.
    4. Jacques Jongh & Jabulile Makhalima & Precious Mncayi-Makhanya & Boingotlo Wesi & Phindile Mdluli-Maziya & Khwazi Magubane, 2025. "The impact of globalisation on industrial development in South Africa: the mediating role of institutional quality," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, December.
    5. repec:ocp:ppaper:pb23-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Goldberg,Pinelopi Koujianou & Reed,Tristan, 2023. "Is the Global Economy Deglobalizing ? And If So, Why? And What Is Next?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10392, The World Bank.

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