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Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte der Flüchtlingsmigration in Deutschland

Author

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  • Hentze, Tobias
  • Kolev, Galina V.

Abstract

In den Jahren 2015 und 2016 sind etwa 1,2 Millionen Flüchtlinge nach Deutschland gekommen. Die kurz- bis mittelfristigen Effekte der Flüchtlingsaufnahme auf die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung werden anhand eines makroökonome­trischen Modells geschätzt. Auf der einen Seite sind die Effekte auf das Pro-Kopf-Einkommen und die fiskalische Bilanz leicht negativ. Auch die Erwerbslosigkeit wird durch die Flüchtlingsmigration ansteigen. Auf der anderen Seite steigern die höheren Staatsausgaben verbunden mit einer zunehmenden Anzahl erwerbstätiger Flüchtlinge das Wirtschaftswachstum. Die kumulierte Zunahme des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts in Deutschland kann sich im Zeitraum 2016 bis 2020 auf bis zu 95 Milliarden Euro belaufen. Der Effekt hängt dabei entscheidend von der Arbeitsmarktintegration und der Bildungspolitik ab.

Suggested Citation

  • Hentze, Tobias & Kolev, Galina V., 2016. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte der Flüchtlingsmigration in Deutschland," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 43(4), pages 59-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwktre:157643
    DOI: 10.2373/1864-810X.16-04-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bonin, Holger, 2016. "Gewinne der Integration: Berufliche Qualifikation und Integrationstempo entscheiden über die langfristigen fiskalischen Kosten der Aufnahme Geflüchteter," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, volume 1, number 141313.
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    Cited by:

    1. Manthei, Gerrit, 2020. "The long-term growth impact of refugee migration in Europe: A case study," FZG Discussion Papers 71, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; Arbeitsmarkt; Staatsausgaben;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J00 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - General

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