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Die Wirkung des demografischen Wandels auf die Steuereinnahmen in Deutschland

Author

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  • Beznoska, Martin
  • Hentze, Tobias

Abstract

Infolge der hohen Nettozuwanderung wachsen derzeit die Bevölkerung und damit auch die Anzahl der Erwerbsfähigen in Deutschland. Bereits in wenigen Jahren wird sich die demografische Entwicklung jedoch umkehren. Die Bevölkerung und vor allem die Anzahl der Erwerbstätigen werden zurückgehen. Rückgang und Alterung der Gesellschaft stellen auch die Staatsfinanzen vor große Herausforderungen, da die Einnahmen aus der Einkommensteuer sinken werden. Verstärkt wird dieser Effekt durch den Übergang zur nachgelagerten Besteuerung. In 20 Jahren würde auf Basis einer Simulationsrechnung das jährliche Aufkommen aus der Einkommensteuer preisbereinigt um 18 Milliarden Euro oder um fast 7 Prozent geringer ausfallen als heute.

Suggested Citation

  • Beznoska, Martin & Hentze, Tobias, 2016. "Die Wirkung des demografischen Wandels auf die Steuereinnahmen in Deutschland," IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) / German Economic Institute, vol. 43(3), pages 77-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwktre:157637
    DOI: 10.2373/1864-810X.16-03-05
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    Cited by:

    1. Gutmann, David & Peters, Fabian, 2019. "Auch alte Schultern können breit sein! Die Einkommensteuer im Spiegel der nachgelagerten Besteuerung von Alterseinkünften," FZG Discussion Papers 69, University of Freiburg, Research Center for Generational Contracts (FZG).
    2. Gerhard Schulz & Philipp Jäger & Torsten Schmidt & Erik Gawel & Thomas Puls & Gernot Sieg & Berthold U. Wigger & Alexander Eisenkop, 2018. "What Reforms Are Needed for a Sustainable and Soundly-Financed Transport Infrastructure," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(22), pages 03-22, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Staatsfinanzen; Steuereinnahmen; demografischer Wandel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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