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Putting electoral competition where it belongs: comparing vote-based measures of electoral competition

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  • Wagner, Aiko
  • Krause, Werner

Abstract

Electoral competition is a cornerstone of representative democracies. However, measuring its extent and intensity constitutes a challenging task for the discipline. Based on multilevel conceptualizations, we discuss three different measures of political competition (electoral volatility, vote switching, and voters’ availability) and their relation to each other. We argue that electoral volatility and vote switching as indicators of electoral competitiveness tend to misestimate the degree of competition in multiparty systems. As an alternative, we propose focusing on the individual’s propensity to vote for different parties, i.e. electoral availability. Using data provided by the European Election Studies, we compare availability to electoral volatility and vote switching in the framework of necessary and sufficient conditions. Our regression results show that operationalizing electoral competitiveness based on voter availability – which is increasingly retrievable from cross-national voter surveys – helps to avoid type-II errors, i.e. identifying competitive elections as less or non-competitive.

Suggested Citation

  • Wagner, Aiko & Krause, Werner, 2021. "Putting electoral competition where it belongs: comparing vote-based measures of electoral competition," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue Latest Ar, pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:233029
    DOI: 10.1080/17457289.2020.1866584
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wagner, Aiko, 2017. "A micro perspective on political competition: Electoral availability in the European electorates," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 502-520.
    2. Tsebelis, George, 1999. "Veto Players and Law Production in Parliamentary Democracies: An Empirical Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 93(3), pages 591-608, September.
    3. Bartolini, S., 1995. "Electoral Competition: Analytical Dimensions and Empirical Problems," Papers 95/6, European Institute - Political and Social Sciences.
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    1. Wagner, Aiko, 2022. "Party System Change in Eastern and Western Germany Between Convergence and Dissimilarity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue Latest Ar, pages 1-1.

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