IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/sustdv/v32y2024i5p4413-4427.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Urban sustainable development: Unraveling regional land development intensity dynamics and future trends in China

Author

Listed:
  • Jiawen Li
  • Guiliang Tian
  • Zheng Wu
  • Qiuya Zhao
  • Yihang Meng
  • Qing Xia

Abstract

Accompanying the ongoing progression of urbanization, the issue of imbalanced regional land development has become increasingly severe in China. Understanding the current status and changing trends of land development intensity (LDI) is crucial for optimizing the regional land development landscape. In light of this study proposed an new analytical framework of “evaluation‐process‐mechanism‐prediction” to investigate land development intensity in China. Building upon LDI the assessment, this study analyzed spatiotemporal evolution patterns. Subsequently, The Geodetector model was used to explore the factors influencing LDI from four perspectives: policy, society, economy, and nature. Finally, the SSA‐LSTM model was employed to predict the LDI in 2026. The results revealed the following: (1) From 2006 to 2021, the average LDI in China exhibited a continuous upward trend, showcasing diverse development characteristics. Regional disparities were prominent, presenting an overall upward trend from east to west and from south to north. (2) Factors influencing LDI have gradually shifted from being primarily driven by social factors, while also considering natural and policy factors, to being primarily driven by economic factors, while also considering social factors. (3) Based on the forecast, the average LDI is projected to increase and maintain an upward trend. However, the range will reach 6.22, indicating an increasingly pronounced “insufficient and imbalanced” trend among provinces and municipalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiawen Li & Guiliang Tian & Zheng Wu & Qiuya Zhao & Yihang Meng & Qing Xia, 2024. "Urban sustainable development: Unraveling regional land development intensity dynamics and future trends in China," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 4413-4427, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:sustdv:v:32:y:2024:i:5:p:4413-4427
    DOI: 10.1002/sd.2917
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2917
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/sd.2917?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Pengyan & Yang, Dan & Qin, Mingzhou & Jing, Wenlong, 2020. "Spatial heterogeneity analysis and driving forces exploring of built-up land development intensity in Chinese prefecture-level cities and implications for future Urban Land intensive use," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    2. Zhenbo Wang, 2018. "Land Spatial Development Based on Carrying Capacity, Land Development Potential, and Efficiency of Urban Agglomerations in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Aleksy Kwilinski & Oleksii Lyulyov & Tetyana Pimonenko, 2023. "The Effects of Urbanisation on Green Growth within Sustainable Development Goals," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hugo Gaspar Hernandez-Palma & Dairo J. Novoa & Jorge Enrique Taboada à lvarez, 2024. "New Trends in Green Projects Aimed at Clean Energy: An Analysis of the Scientific Literature," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 278-286, November.
    2. Sani Inusa Milala & Khadijah Binti Md Ariffin, 2025. "Assessing the Impact of Economic Growth, Infrastructure Development, and Green Financing on Real Estate Sustainability: A Longitudinal Analysis of SDG11(Smart Cities)," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(4), pages 1-11, April.
    3. Nino Stameski & Magdalena Radulescu & Vera Zelenović & Vera Mirović & Branimir Kalaš & Nataša Pavlović, 2024. "Investigating the Effects of Environmental Tax Revenues on Economic Development: The Case of Nordic Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Zhang, Shouguo & Zhang, Jianjun & Dai, Yixin & Zhang, Ling, 2025. "Mitigating conflicts in the implementation of intensive land use policies: Insights from a tripartite evolutionary game model," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    5. Wei-Ling Hsu & Xijuan Shen & Haiying Xu & Chunmei Zhang & Hsin-Lung Liu & Yan-Chyuan Shiau, 2021. "Integrated Evaluations of Resource and Environment Carrying Capacity of the Huaihe River Ecological and Economic Belt in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-21, October.
    6. Henryk Dzwigol & Aleksy Kwilinski & Oleksii Lyulyov & Tetyana Pimonenko, 2024. "Digitalization and Energy in Attaining Sustainable Development: Impact on Energy Consumption, Energy Structure, and Energy Intensity," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-17, March.
    7. Wang, Liye & Zhang, Siyu & Xiong, Qiangqiang & Liu, Yu & Liu, Yanfang & Liu, Yaolin, 2022. "Spatiotemporal dynamics of cropland expansion and its driving factors in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: A nuanced analysis at the county scale," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    8. Gyula Nagy & Soma Ádám Heiner & Zoltán Kovács, 2025. "Exploring the Presence and Absence of Academic Discourse on Public Participation in the European Green Deal: A Central and Eastern European Perspective," Societies, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-24, February.
    9. Yang Tang & Yongbo Yuan & Qingyu Zhong, 2021. "Evaluation of Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity and Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the Harbin-Changchun Urban Agglomeration," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-19, January.
    10. Yanyan Li & Jinbing Zhang & Hui Zhu & Zhimin Zhou & Shan Jiang & Shuangyan He & Ying Zhang & Yicheng Huang & Mengfan Li & Guangrui Xing & Guanghui Li, 2023. "Soil Erosion Characteristics and Scenario Analysis in the Yellow River Basin Based on PLUS and RUSLE Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-19, January.
    11. Pengrui Wang & Chen Zeng & Yan Song & Long Guo & Wenping Liu & Wenting Zhang, 2021. "The Spatial Effect of Administrative Division on Land-Use Intensity," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, May.
    12. Zhipeng Yang & Shijun Wang & Meng Guo & Junfeng Tian & Yingjie Zhang, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Differentiation of Territorial Space Development Intensity and Its Habitat Quality Response in Northeast China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-20, May.
    13. Zhangsheng Liu & Binbin Lai & Shuangyin Wu & Xiaotian Liu & Qunhong Liu & Kun Ge, 2022. "Growth Targets Management, Regional Competition and Urban Land Green Use Efficiency According to Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-21, May.
    14. Xingran Cai & Yanqing Liang & Zhiying Huang & Jingfeng Ge, 2021. "Spatiotemporal pattern and coordination relationship between urban residential land price and land use intensity in 31 provinces and cities in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(7), pages 1-16, July.
    15. Siliang Guo & Heng Ma, 2022. "Can the Spatial Function Division of Urbanization Promote Regional Coordinated Development? Evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-28, June.
    16. Sani Inusa Milala & Khadijah Binti Md Ariffin, 2025. "Evaluating Sustainable Financing in Real Estate: A Panel Data Approach to Economic Growth and SDG Attainment in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 9(14), pages 577-599, March.
    17. Keqiang Wang & Guoxiang Li & Hongmei Liu, 2020. "Location choice of industrial land reduction in Metropolitan Area: Evidence from Shanghai in China," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 1837-1859, December.
    18. Yu Wang & Lin Zhang, 2023. "The Impact of Technology Innovation on Urban Land Intensive Use in China: Evidence from 284 Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-23, February.
    19. Yanyan Wu & Jiadong Yuan, 2022. "Is There a Regulation in the Expansion of Urban Spatial Structure? Empirical Study from the Main Urban Area in Zhengzhou, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-17, March.
    20. Henryk Dzwigol & Aleksy Kwilinski & Oleksii Lyulyov & Tetyana Pimonenko, 2023. "The Role of Environmental Regulations, Renewable Energy, and Energy Efficiency in Finding the Path to Green Economic Growth," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-18, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:sustdv:v:32:y:2024:i:5:p:4413-4427. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1099-1719 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.