IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v14y1994i4p571-576.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Uncertainty Analysis in Multiplicative Models

Author

Listed:
  • Wout Slob

Abstract

Uncertainties are usually evaluated by Monte Carlo analysis. However, multiplicative models with lognormal uncertainties, which are ubiquitous in risk assessments, allow for a simple and quick analytical uncertainty analysis. The necessary formulae are given, which may be evaluated by a desk calculator. Two examples illustrate the method.

Suggested Citation

  • Wout Slob, 1994. "Uncertainty Analysis in Multiplicative Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 571-576, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:14:y:1994:i:4:p:571-576
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00271.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00271.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1994.tb00271.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew E. Smith & P. Barry Ryan & John S. Evans, 1992. "The Effect of Neglecting Correlations When Propagating Uncertainty and Estimating the Population Distribution of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(4), pages 467-474, December.
    2. Kimberly M. Thompson & David E. Burmaster, 1991. "Parametric Distributions for Soil Ingestion by Children," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), pages 339-342, June.
    3. Alexander Shlyakhter & Gay Goodman & Richard Wilson, 1992. "Monte Carlo Simulation of Rodent Carcinogenicity Bioassays," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 73-82, March.
    4. Wout Slob, 1993. "Modeling Long‐Term Exposure of the Whole Population to Chemicals in Food," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(5), pages 525-530, October.
    5. Ann M. Roseberry & David E. Burmaster, 1992. "Lognormal Distributions for Water Intake by Children and Adults," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 99-104, March.
    6. Ronald L. Iman & Jon C. Helton, 1988. "An Investigation of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Techniques for Computer Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 71-90, March.
    7. Kimberly M. Thompson & David E. Burmaster & Edmund A.C. Crouch3, 1992. "Monte Carlo Techniques for Quantitative Uncertainty Analysis in Public Health Risk Assessments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 53-63, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anne‐Marie Boulay & Pascal Lesage & Ben Amor & Stephan Pfister, 2021. "Quantifying uncertainty for AWARE characterization factors," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1588-1601, December.
    2. Kai Lessmann & Andreas Beyer & Jörg Klasmeier & Michael Matthies, 2005. "Influence of Distributional Shape of Substance Parameters on Exposure Model Output," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(5), pages 1137-1145, October.
    3. S. N. Rai & D. Krewski, 1998. "Uncertainty and Variability Analysis in Multiplicative Risk Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 37-45, February.
    4. Nicholas Z. Muller & Yan N. Oak, 2009. "Characterizing Uncertainty in Air Pollution Damage Estimates," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0918, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
    5. W. Slob & M. N. Pieters, 1998. "A Probabilistic Approach for Deriving Acceptable Human Intake Limits and Human Health Risks from Toxicological Studies: General Framework," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(6), pages 787-798, December.
    6. David W. Gaylor & James J. Chen, 1996. "A Simple Upper Limit for the Sum of the Risks of the Components in a Mixture," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(3), pages 395-398, June.
    7. Bas Groot Koerkamp & Theo Stijnen & Milton C. Weinstein & M. G. Myriam Hunink, 2011. "The Combined Analysis of Uncertainty and Patient Heterogeneity in Medical Decision Models," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 31(4), pages 650-661, July.
    8. Kevin P. Brand & Mitchell J. Small, 1995. "Updating Uncertainty in an Integrated Risk Assessment: Conceptual Framework and Methods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(6), pages 719-729, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brent Finley & Dennis Paustenbach, 1994. "The Benefits of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment: Three Case Studies Involving Contaminated Air, Water, and Soil," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(1), pages 53-73, February.
    2. Maged M. Hamed & Philip B. Bedient, 1997. "On the Effect of Probability Distributions of Input Variables in Public Health Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), pages 97-105, February.
    3. Michael R. Adams & Cynthia A. Hanna & Janet A. Mayernik & William M. Mendez, 1994. "Probabilistic Health Risk Assessment for Exposures to Estuary Sediments and Biota Contaminated with Polychlorinated Biphenyls, Polychlorinated Terphenyls and Other Toxic Substances," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 577-594, August.
    4. A. E. Ades & Karl Claxton & Mark Sculpher, 2006. "Evidence synthesis, parameter correlation and probabilistic sensitivity analysis," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 373-381, April.
    5. Brent Finley & Deborah Proctor & Paul Scott & Natalie Harrington & Dennis Paustenbach & Paul Price, 1994. "Recommended Distributions for Exposure Factors Frequently Used in Health Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 533-553, August.
    6. Dale Hattis & David E. Burmaster, 1994. "Assessment of Variability and Uncertainty Distributions for Practical Risk Analyses," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(5), pages 713-730, October.
    7. Roy L. Smith, 1994. "Use of Monte Carlo Simulation for Human Exposure Assessment at a Superfund Site," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 433-439, August.
    8. Alan H. Stern, 1993. "Re‐evaluation of the Reference Dose for Methylmercury and Assessment of Current Exposure Levels," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(3), pages 355-364, June.
    9. S.Y. Jimmy Chan, 1993. "An Alternative Approach to the Modeling of Probability Distributions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(1), pages 97-102, February.
    10. David E. Burmaster, 1998. "Lognormal Distributions for Total Water Intake and Tap Water Intake by Pregnant and Lactating Women in the United States," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 215-219, April.
    11. John Bukowski & Leo Korn & Daniel Wartenberg, 1995. "Correlated Inputs in Quantitative Risk Assessment: The Effects of Distributional Shape," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(2), pages 215-219, April.
    12. Victor R. Vasquez & Wallace B. Whiting, 2005. "Accounting for Both Random Errors and Systematic Errors in Uncertainty Propagation Analysis of Computer Models Involving Experimental Measurements with Monte Carlo Methods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(6), pages 1669-1681, December.
    13. Andrew E. Smith & P. Barry Ryan & John S. Evans, 1992. "The Effect of Neglecting Correlations When Propagating Uncertainty and Estimating the Population Distribution of Risk," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(4), pages 467-474, December.
    14. Fritz A. Seiler & Joseph L. Alvarez, 1996. "On the Selection of Distributions for Stochastic Variables," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(1), pages 5-18, February.
    15. S. Cucurachi & E. Borgonovo & R. Heijungs, 2016. "A Protocol for the Global Sensitivity Analysis of Impact Assessment Models in Life Cycle Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 357-377, February.
    16. Christopher Dickey & Regina M. Santella & Dale Hattis & Deliang Tang & Yanzhi Hsu & Tom Cooper & Tie‐Lan Young & Frederica P. Perera, 1997. "Variability in PAH‐DNA Adduct Measurements in Peripheral Mononuclear Cells: Implications for Quantitative Cancer Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(5), pages 649-656, October.
    17. Simon K Chiu & Louise Freebairn & Louise A Baur & L. Kurt Kreuger & Adam Skinner & Jo‐An Occhipinti, 2023. "Modeling distribution parameters in system dynamics: an application in childhood obesity," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 39(2), pages 103-124, April.
    18. D. Krewski & D .W. Gaylor & A. P. Soms & M. Szyszkowicz, 1993. "An Overview of the Report: Correlation Between Carcinogenic Potency and the Maximum Tolerated Dose: Implications for Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(4), pages 383-398, August.
    19. David E. Burmaster, 1998. "Lognormal Distributions for Skin Area as a Function of Body Weight," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(1), pages 27-32, February.
    20. Hilko Van Der Voet & Wout Slob, 2007. "Integration of Probabilistic Exposure Assessment and Probabilistic Hazard Characterization," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(2), pages 351-371, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:14:y:1994:i:4:p:571-576. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.