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The Repeatability of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses for Complex Probabilistic Risk Assessments

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  • Ronald L. Iman
  • Jon C. Helton

Abstract

The performance of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) for a nuclear power plant is a complex undertaking, involving the assembly of an accident frequency analysis, an accident progression analysis, a source term analysis, and a consequence analysis. Each of these analyses is, in itself, quite complex. Uncertainties enter into a PRA from each of these analyses. An important focus in recent PRAs has been to incorporate these uncertainties at each stage of the analysis, propagate the subsequent uncertainties through the entire analysis, and include uncertainty in the final results. Monte Carlo procedures based on Latin hypercube sampling provide one way to perform propagations of this type. In this paper, the results of two complete and independent Monte Carlo calculations for a recently completed PRA for a nuclear power plant are compared as a means of providing empirical evidence on the repeatability of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for large‐scale PRA calculations. These calculations use the same variables and analysis structure with two independently generated Latin hypercube samples. The results of the two calculations show a high degree of repeatability for the analysis of a very complex system.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald L. Iman & Jon C. Helton, 1991. "The Repeatability of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses for Complex Probabilistic Risk Assessments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(4), pages 591-606, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:11:y:1991:i:4:p:591-606
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1991.tb00649.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ronald L. Iman & Stephen C. Hora, 1989. "Bayesian Methods for Modeling Recovery Times with an Application to the Loss of Off‐Site Power at Nuclear Power Plants," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(1), pages 25-36, March.
    2. Ronald L. Iman, 1987. "A Matrix‐Based Approach to Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for Fault Trees," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 21-33, March.
    3. Stephen C. Hora & Ronald L. Iman, 1990. "Bayesian Modeling of Initiating Event Frequencies at Nuclear Power Plants," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(1), pages 103-109, March.
    4. Stanley Kaplan, 1982. "Matrix Theory Formalism for Event Tree Analysis: Application to Nuclear‐Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 9-18, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sakurahara, Tatsuya & Schumock, Grant & Reihani, Seyed & Kee, Ernie & Mohaghegh, Zahra, 2019. "Simulation-Informed Probabilistic Methodology for Common Cause Failure Analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 84-99.
    2. J. C. Helton & D. R. Anderson & H.‐N. Jow & M. G. Marietta & G. Basabilvazo, 1999. "Performance Assessment in Support of the 1996 Compliance Certification Application for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(5), pages 959-986, October.
    3. S. Cucurachi & E. Borgonovo & R. Heijungs, 2016. "A Protocol for the Global Sensitivity Analysis of Impact Assessment Models in Life Cycle Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 357-377, February.
    4. Tatsuya Sakurahara & Seyed Reihani & Ernie Kee & Zahra Mohaghegh, 2020. "Global importance measure methodology for integrated probabilistic risk assessment," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 234(2), pages 377-396, April.
    5. Takeda, Satoshi & Kitada, Takanori, 2021. "Simple method based on sensitivity coefficient for stochastic uncertainty analysis in probabilistic risk assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    6. Jon C. Helton, 1994. "Treatment of Uncertainty in Performance Assessments for Complex Systems," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 483-511, August.
    7. Douglas L. Van Bossuyt & Bryan M. O'Halloran & Ryan M. Arlitt, 2019. "A method of identifying and analyzing irrational system behavior in a system of systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(6), pages 519-537, November.
    8. Bui, Ha & Sakurahara, Tatsuya & Pence, Justin & Reihani, Seyed & Kee, Ernie & Mohaghegh, Zahra, 2019. "An algorithm for enhancing spatiotemporal resolution of probabilistic risk assessment to address emergent safety concerns in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 405-428.
    9. Randall D. Manteufel, 1996. "Variance‐Based Importance Analysis Applied to a Complex Probabilistic Performance Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 587-598, August.

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