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VPIN, Jump Dynamics and Inventory Announcements in Energy Futures Markets

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  • Johan Bjursell
  • George H. K. Wang
  • Hui Zheng

Abstract

The Volume‐Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading (VPIN) metric is proposed by Easley et al. (2011, 2012) (Journal of Portfolio Management, 37:118–128; Review of Financial Studies, 25:1457–1493) as a real‐time measure of order flow toxicity in an electronic trading market. This study examines the performance of VPIN around inventory announcements and price jumps in crude oil and natural gas futures markets with a sample period from January 2009 to May 2015. We obtain several interesting results: (i) VPIN increases significantly around inventory announcements with price jumps as well as at jumps not associated with any scheduled announcements. (ii) VPIN does not peak prior to the events but shortly after. (iii) A minor variation of VPIN based on exponential smoothing significantly improves the early warning signal property of VPIN, and this estimate of toxicity returns faster to the pre‐event level. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 37:542–577, 2017

Suggested Citation

  • Johan Bjursell & George H. K. Wang & Hui Zheng, 2017. "VPIN, Jump Dynamics and Inventory Announcements in Energy Futures Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 542-577, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:37:y:2017:i:6:p:542-577
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    Cited by:

    1. Chi Zhang & Zhengning Pu & Qin Zhou, 2018. "Sustainable Energy Consumption in Northeast Asia: A Case from China’s Fuel Oil Futures Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Yang, Haijun & Xue, Feng, 2021. "Analysis of stock market volatility: Adjusted VPIN with high-frequency data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 210-222.
    3. Prodromou, Tina & Westerholm, P. Joakim, 2022. "Are high frequency traders responsible for extreme price movements?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 94-111.
    4. Yildiz, Serhat & Van Ness, Bonnie & Van Ness, Robert, 2020. "VPIN, liquidity, and return volatility in the U.S. equity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    5. Yang Gao & Chengjie Zhao & Bianxia Sun & Wandi Zhao, 2022. "Effects of investor sentiment on stock volatility: new evidences from multi-source data in China’s green stock markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-30, December.
    6. Caporin, Massimiliano & Poli, Francesco, 2022. "News and intraday jumps: Evidence from regularization and class imbalance," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

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