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Do IMF fiscal forecasts add value?

Author

Listed:
  • Zidong An
  • João Tovar Jalles
  • Prakash Loungani
  • Ricardo M. Sousa

Abstract

We used a panel of 29 advanced and emerging market countries to investigate whether the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) fiscal forecasts add value in terms of forecast accuracy and information content, relative to private sector forecasts (from Consensus Economics). We find that: (i) WEO forecasts are not significantly less accurate than Consensus forecasts; (ii) WEO and Consensus forecasts tend to mutually encompass one another; and (iii) each source of forecasts appears to contain some information that is not embedded in the other source.

Suggested Citation

  • Zidong An & João Tovar Jalles & Prakash Loungani & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2018. "Do IMF fiscal forecasts add value?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(6), pages 650-665, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:37:y:2018:i:6:p:650-665
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2527
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    Cited by:

    1. Emilio Colombo & Davide Furceri & Pietro Pizzuto & Patrizio Tirelli, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers and Informality," DISEIS - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo dis2201, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo (DISEIS).
    2. Julia Estefania‐Flores & Davide Furceri & Siddharth Kothari & Jonathan D. Ostry, 2023. "Worse than you think: Public debt forecast errors in advanced and developing economies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 685-714, April.
    3. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2023. "Assessing the World Bank’s growth forecasts," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 64-84.
    4. Tore Dubbert, 2022. "Stochastic debt sustainability analysis using time-varying fiscal reaction functions. An agnostic approach to fiscal forecasting," CQE Working Papers 10422, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    5. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2020. "Twin Deficits in Developing Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, February.
    6. Davide Furceri & Jun Ge & Prakash Loungani & Giovanni Melina, 2022. "The distributional effects of government spending shocks in developing economies," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1574-1599, August.
    7. Alexander Kentikelenis & Thomas Stubbs, 2022. "Austerity Redux: The Post‐pandemic Wave of Budget Cuts and the Future of Global Public Health," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(1), pages 5-17, February.
    8. Rybacki, Jakub, 2021. "Does International Monetary Fund Favor Certain Countries During the Fiscal Forecasting – Evidence of the Institutional Biases?," MPRA Paper 107681, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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