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Identification Issues In Limited‐Information Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Macroeconomic Models

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  • Frank Kleibergen
  • Sophocles Mavroeidis

Abstract

The likelihood of the parameters in structural macroeconomic models typically has non‐identification regions over which it is constant. When sufficiently diffuse priors are used, the posterior piles up in such non‐identification regions. Use of informative priors can lead to the opposite, so both can generate spurious inference. We propose priors/posteriors on the structural parameters that are implied by priors/posteriors on the parameters of an embedding reduced‐form model. An example of such a prior is the Jeffreys prior. We use it to conduct Bayesian limited‐information inference on the new Keynesian Phillips curve with a VAR reduced form for US data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Kleibergen & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2014. "Identification Issues In Limited‐Information Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Macroeconomic Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 1183-1209, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:29:y:2014:i:7:p:1183-1209
    DOI: 10.1002/jae.2398
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    Cited by:

    1. Yasufumi Gemma & Takushi Kurozumi & Mototsugu Shintani, 2023. "Trend Inflation and Evolving Inflation Dynamics:A Bayesian GMM Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 506-520, December.
    2. Jean-Pierre Florens & Anna Simoni, 2021. "Revisiting Identification Concepts in Bayesian Analysis," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 144, pages 1-38.
    3. Fernández-Villaverde, J. & Rubio-Ramírez, J.F. & Schorfheide, F., 2016. "Solution and Estimation Methods for DSGE Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 527-724, Elsevier.
    4. Kukacka, Jiri & Sacht, Stephen, 2023. "Estimation of heuristic switching in behavioral macroeconomic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Morris, Stephen D., 2017. "DSGE pileups," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 56-86.
    6. Isaiah Andrews & Anna Mikusheva, 2022. "Optimal Decision Rules for Weak GMM," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(2), pages 715-748, March.

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