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U.S. economic uncertainty, EU business cycles, and the global financial crisis

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  • Taufiq Choudhry
  • Syed S. Hassan
  • Sarosh Shabi

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of the U.S. economic uncertainty on the business cycles (changes in the industrial production) of 12 European Union (EU) countries before and during the global financial crisis. Empirical tests are conducted using the linear and non‐linear causality tests, impulse response function, and variance decomposition. Results show ample evidence of causality from the U.S. uncertainty to EU business cycles only when the crisis period is included in the analysis. Both the linear and non‐linear tests confirm the significance of U.S. uncertainty as a short‐term predictor of business cycles of the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Taufiq Choudhry & Syed S. Hassan & Sarosh Shabi, 2020. "U.S. economic uncertainty, EU business cycles, and the global financial crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 28-42, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ijfiec:v:25:y:2020:i:1:p:28-42
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.1726
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    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen, Thanh Cong, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty: The probability and duration of economic recessions in major European Union countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Yunus, Nafeesa, 2023. "Long-run and short-run impact of the U.S. economy on stock, bond and housing markets: An evaluation of U.S. and six major economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 211-232.
    3. Ashima Goyal & Akhilesh K. Verma & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2022. "External shocks, cross-border flows and macroeconomic risks in emerging market economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2111-2148, May.
    4. Tang, Wenjin & Ding, Saijie & Chen, Hao, 2021. "Economic uncertainty and its spillover networks: Evidence from the Asia-Pacific countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Hua, Wei & Mitchell, Ronald K. & Mitchell, Benjamin T. & Mitchell, J. Robert & Israelsen, Trevor L., 2022. "Momentum for entrepreneurial internationalization: Friction at the interface between international and domestic institutions," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 37(6).
    6. Saud Asaad Al‐Thaqeb & Barrak Ghanim Algharabali & Khaled Tareq Alabdulghafour, 2022. "The pandemic and economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2784-2794, July.
    7. Michael Machokoto & Geofry Areneke & Davis Nyangara, 2021. "Financial conservatism, firm value and international business risk: Evidence from emerging economies around the global financial crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4590-4608, July.

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