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Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)

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  • Robert Fildes

Abstract

This commentary revisits an early book review by the author of Kees van der Heijden's influential book, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, highlighting the continuing neglect of the role of forecasting in scenario construction. In addition, there still remains considerable ambiguity as to whether scenarios offer more than plausible stories. The review highlights the need to resolve these ambiguities in the scenario research literature through a better understanding of the links between forecasting and scenario construction. The benefit of success would be a greater understanding of long‐term uncertainty.

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  • Robert Fildes, 2022. "Scenarios, strategic conversations, and forecasting: A commentary on Rowland and Spaniol (2021)," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:4:y:2022:i:1:n:e112
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.112
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Peter Scoblic & Philip E. Tetlock, 2021. "A Better Crystal Ball: The Right Way to Think About the Future," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 62, pages 27-32, Q3.
    2. Wright, George & Cairns, George & O'Brien, Frances A. & Goodwin, Paul, 2019. "Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 3-19.
    3. Önkal, Dilek & Sayım, Kadire Zeynep & Gönül, Mustafa Sinan, 2013. "Scenarios as channels of forecast advice," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 772-788.
    4. Goodwin, Paul & Gönül, M. Sinan & Önkal, Dilek, 2019. "When providing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios can be detrimental to judgmental demand forecasts and production decisions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(3), pages 992-1004.
    5. Wright, George & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 813-825, October.
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