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Are you a newcomer to horizon scanning? A few decision points and methodological reflections on the process

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  • Zsuzsanna Géring
  • Gábor Király
  • Réka Tamássy

Abstract

In this short methodological paper, we introduce four issues regarding the process of a horizon scanning exercise. During our horizon scanning project about the future of higher education, we met with several methodological challenges that influenced the data gathering and analysis of our research. The four issues were as follows: (1) finding the right template of data gathering, (2) identifying the right focus of our exercise, (3) the effect of the chosen target group on the process, and (4) the issue of blind spots of the analyzed discourse. By making our research dilemmas and our answers transparent, we would like to highlight how these issues and our decisions shaped the process and the output. In this manner, we demonstrate the iterative aspect of data‐gathering and analysis phases in horizon scanning processes. By discussing these four challenges, we also attempt to emphasize that methodological decisions mutually affect each other and in turn the process itself. Furthermore, this way we could provide methodological insights for researchers who encounter similar decision points during their horizon scanning.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsuzsanna Géring & Gábor Király & Réka Tamássy, 2021. "Are you a newcomer to horizon scanning? A few decision points and methodological reflections on the process," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:fufsci:v:3:y:2021:i:3-4:n:e77
    DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.77
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Totti Könnölä & Ahti Salo & Cristiano Cagnin & Vicente Carabias & Eeva Vilkkumaa, 2012. "Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 222-231, March.
    2. Gábor Király & Alexandra Köves & György Pataki & Gabriella Kiss, 2016. "Assessing the Participatory Potential of Systems Mapping," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(4), pages 496-514, July.
    3. Effie Amanatidou & Maurits Butter & Vicente Carabias & Totti Könnölä & Miriam Leis & Ozcan Saritas & Petra Schaper-Rinkel & Victor van Rij, 2012. "On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues," Science and Public Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(2), pages 208-221, March.
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