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Wildfire risk estimation in the Mediterranean area

Author

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  • Haiganoush K. Preisler
  • A. A. Ager
  • H. K. Preisler
  • B. Arca
  • D. Spano
  • M. Salis

Abstract

We analyzed wildland fire occurrence and size data from Sardinia, Italy, and Corsica, France, to examine spatiotemporal patterns of fire occurrence in relation to weather, land use, anthropogenic features, and time of year. Fires on these islands are largely human caused and can be attributed to negligence, agro‐pastoral land use, and arson. Of particular interest was the predictive value of a fire weather index (FWI) that is widely used by fire managers to alert suppression crews. We found that an increase in the FWI from 30 to 60 produced on average an approximate eightfold increase in the odds of a large fire, regardless of the time of year during the fire season or land use type. Total area burned per fire season was positively correlated with the number of days with FWI > 40 over the period studied. Strong interactions between time of year and land type were also observed for both the probability of ignition and large fire. For example, the estimated odds of a large fire on agricultural lands in southern Sardinia was approximately 10 times larger than the forest and shrubland land type for areas close to roads, early (May) in the fire season. Conversely, toward the end of the fire season (September), we estimated the odds of a large fire in these same areas at about half the value estimated for the forest land classes. Of the explanatory variables analyzed, only FWI had an effect on the probability of a large fire (P > 0.1). The results of the study can be used in several ways including the following: (1) allocating fire detection and suppression resources to specific locations during the fire season; (2) prioritizing fuel breaks along specific road segments that have high predicted ignition rates; (3) refining the current fire danger indices; and (4) parameterizing wildfire simulation models to test how changing land use and climate change may affect spatial patterns in burn probability and intensity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Haiganoush K. Preisler & A. A. Ager & H. K. Preisler & B. Arca & D. Spano & M. Salis, 2014. "Wildfire risk estimation in the Mediterranean area," Environmetrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 384-396, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:envmet:v:25:y:2014:i:6:p:384-396
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    1. Alcasena, Fermín J. & Salis, Michele & Nauslar, Nicholas J. & Aguinaga, A. Eduardo & Vega-García, Cristina, 2016. "Quantifying economic losses from wildfires in black pine afforestations of northern Spain," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 153-167.
    2. Zhongzhen Yang & Liquan Guo & Zaili Yang, 2019. "Emergency logistics for wildfire suppression based on forecasted disaster evolution," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 283(1), pages 917-937, December.
    3. Baïle, Rachel & Muzy, Jean-François & Silvani, Xavier, 2021. "Multifractal point processes and the spatial distribution of wildfires in French Mediterranean regions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 568(C).
    4. Chao Song & Mei-Po Kwan & Jiping Zhu, 2017. "Modeling Fire Occurrence at the City Scale: A Comparison between Geographically Weighted Regression and Global Linear Regression," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    5. Marcos Rodrigues & Fermín Alcasena & Pere Gelabert & Cristina Vega‐García, 2020. "Geospatial Modeling of Containment Probability for Escaped Wildfires in a Mediterranean Region," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(9), pages 1762-1779, September.
    6. Ager, Alan A. & Barros, Ana M.G. & Day, Michelle A. & Preisler, Haiganoush K. & Spies, Thomas A. & Bolte, John, 2018. "Analyzing fine-scale spatiotemporal drivers of wildfire in a forest landscape model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 384(C), pages 87-102.
    7. Slobodan Milanović & Zoran Trailović & Sladjan D. Milanović & Eduard Hochbichler & Thomas Kirisits & Markus Immitzer & Petr Čermák & Radek Pokorný & Libor Jankovský & Abolfazl Jaafari, 2023. "Country-Level Modeling of Forest Fires in Austria and the Czech Republic: Insights from Open-Source Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Manuel Bertomeu & Javier Pineda & Fernando Pulido, 2022. "Managing Wildfire Risk in Mosaic Landscapes: A Case Study of the Upper Gata River Catchment in Sierra de Gata, Spain," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-26, March.
    9. Michele Salis & Liliana Del Giudice & Roghayeh Jahdi & Fermin Alcasena-Urdiroz & Carla Scarpa & Grazia Pellizzaro & Valentina Bacciu & Matilde Schirru & Andrea Ventura & Marcello Casula & Fabrizio Ped, 2022. "Spatial Patterns and Intensity of Land Abandonment Drive Wildfire Hazard and Likelihood in Mediterranean Agropastoral Areas," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, October.
    10. Olga M. Lozano & Michele Salis & Alan A. Ager & Bachisio Arca & Fermin J. Alcasena & Antonio T. Monteiro & Mark A. Finney & Liliana Del Giudice & Enrico Scoccimarro & Donatella Spano, 2017. "Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(10), pages 1898-1916, October.
    11. Andrea Beccari & Riccardo Borgoni & Orietta Cazzuli & Roberto Grimaldelli, 2016. "Use and performance of the Forest Fire Weather Index to model the risk of wildfire occurrence in the Alpine region," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 43(4), pages 772-790, July.
    12. Valentina Bacciu & Maria Hatzaki & Anna Karali & Adeline Cauchy & Christos Giannakopoulos & Donatella Spano & Elodie Briche, 2021. "Investigating the Climate-Related Risk of Forest Fires for Mediterranean Islands’ Blue Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-22, September.
    13. Margherita Carlucci & Ilaria Zambon & Andrea Colantoni & Luca Salvati, 2019. "Socioeconomic Development, Demographic Dynamics and Forest Fires in Italy, 1961–2017: A Time-Series Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-17, March.
    14. Aleksandra Kolanek & Mariusz Szymanowski & Michał Małysz, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Forest Fires in Poland and Consequences for Fire Protection Systems: Seeking a Balance between Efficiency and Costs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-19, December.

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