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Dynamics of a Stochastic Epidemic Model with Vaccination and Multiple Time‐Delays for COVID‐19 in the UAE

Author

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  • H. J. Alsakaji
  • F. A. Rihan
  • A. Hashish

Abstract

In this paper, we study the dynamics of COVID‐19 in the UAE with an extended SEIR epidemic model with vaccination, time‐delays, and random noise. The stationary ergodic distribution of positive solutions is examined, in which the solution fluctuates around the equilibrium of the deterministic case, causing the disease to persist stochastically. It is possible to attain infection‐free status (extinction) in some situations, in which diseases die out exponentially and with a probability of one. The numerical simulations and fit to real observations prove the effectiveness of the theoretical results. Combining stochastic perturbations with time‐delays enhances the dynamics of the model, and white noise intensity is an important part of the treatment of infectious diseases.

Suggested Citation

  • H. J. Alsakaji & F. A. Rihan & A. Hashish, 2022. "Dynamics of a Stochastic Epidemic Model with Vaccination and Multiple Time‐Delays for COVID‐19 in the UAE," Complexity, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2022(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:complx:v:2022:y:2022:i:1:n:4247800
    DOI: 10.1155/2022/4247800
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shuo Feng & Zebang Feng & Chen Ling & Chen Chang & Zhongke Feng, 2021. "Prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic trends based on SEIR and AI models," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    2. Din, Anwarud & Li, Yongjin & Khan, Tahir & Zaman, Gul, 2020. "Mathematical analysis of spread and control of the novel corona virus (COVID-19) in China," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Simón A. Rella & Yuliya A. Kulikova & Emmanouil T. Dermitzakis & Fyodor A. Kondrashov, 2021. "Rates of SARS-COV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains," Working Papers 2129, Banco de España.
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